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Swing Trade Idea – May 19, 2021

Market View

World markets are weak premarket with USA red, Europe red, Japan red, China red and Asia red. Yield curve is steeper so money is not flowing into bonds and reflects the inflation narrative. US dollar is higher reflecting risk-off sentiment. Crypto assets are sharply down on the China central bank refreshing its ban on cryptocurrency trading. USA markets are continuing lower following a Wed late day liquidation break on light volume with growth and small caps leading to the downside. S&P500 is back in negative gamma mode with 4100 a critical level that can lead to 4000 on a break.  Crypto sell-off is hitting companies like TSLA, SQ and PYPL hard and accelerating the tech decline. VIX futures have not inverted (but are approaching) and bonds are not bid so premarket it does not look like a sell-off but watch them into the open. TSLA is a concern due to it’s weighting in the indices. It is currently at the March lows and a move below 539 could lead to a larger drop which would impact markets. Important to keep an open mind today as markets may bounce at last weeks lows or break down further. FOMC minutes are something to watch this afternoon as comments regarding inflation can move markets.

Stocks to Watch

Earnings TGT TTWO TCOM FUTU VIPS LOW

Indices Bitcoin ARKK SLV GDX XME XLE JETS SMH KWEB QQQ ICLN FANG TAN

S&P500 TGT TTWO TJX CRM FCX NUE APA HAL MRO COP DVN TSLA AAL CCL NVDA PYPL

Movers RETA ZIM TGT TTWO TCOM FUTU IOVA PRPL COIN VIPS AMC PLTR SQ TSLA SLAB AMAT BB LOW JD GME VIAC 

Stock Idea; SPY

Thurs low is 402.78 which is a level that can be used as a line in the sand for long short. Default thesis is a bounce before that level but can consider short below should that level not hold. Can be a choppy day so watch market internals for confirmation