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Swing Trade Idea – March 4, 2022

Market Setup

• Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia

•Commodities:  Precious metals, oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals

•Yields: lower and curve flatter

•News: USA: non-farm payroll; Russia-Ukraine: no cease fire

•Stocks: AVGO +4% beat and raise; COST -2% beat; GPS +7% beat; European stocks broadly lower with financials the weakest; Russia playbook continues to work; Uranium lower on potential nuclear deal with Iran

•Indices: USA indices pulling back since the European open pre-FOMC. SPY key levels Support: 428 Resistance: 436 440 445. SPX 4400 is a significant gamma level and potential for a large move above or for resistance.  Markets are setup risk-off pre-FOMC  but S&P has been range bound this week so look for bounce to 440 off of 428 with alternate thesis a sharp drop below 428 to 425/420.

• Sectors: Leading: commodities, bonds, US dollar, gold, energy Lagging foreign stocks, financials, small caps, bitcoin

•Stocks to watch: AVGO TLT GPS RTX UNP CSX COST AMD DB Spec Names:  CCJ

Pre-830ET

Earnings AVGO COST GPS MRVL

Indices DBC TLT UUP GLD GDX XOP XLE EEM ARKG XLF ARKK LIT TAN XBI IWM /btc

S&P500 GPS AVGO RTX EPAM NOC APA MOS FCX DVN LMT NEM CCL LIN SEDG NVDA MRNA COST BBY AMD

Movers EJH FNKO WEAT AVGO SPLK SIX OCGN SWBI HIBB AI NOK IQ ABNB SOFI AFRM COST BBY AMD TSLA

WSB RTX CCJ NIO SOFI PLUG AFRM NVDA AMC F NET PLTR AMD

Trade Idea CSX
Rails had strong moves Thursday and are interesting long ideas as higher commodity prices give them pricing leverage. CSX is a coal mover and coal prices are skyrocketing. Pulling back in the premarket. Look for a basing for a long or a breakout above 35.  UNP and CP are alternate names that carry oil and wheat which are also skyrocketing.