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Swing Trade Idea – April 6, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Precious metals, oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yield curve steeper – large move higher in long term rates

•News: USA: FOMC meeting minutes; Brainard called for rapid reductions of FED balance sheet which led to market pulling back Wed; DB calling for 2023 recession Europe: German factory orders -2.2% vs -.2%  China: Caixin PMI fell to 42 lowest since Apr 2020 Ukraine: Europeans pushing to increase sanctions – positive for commodities

•Stocks: JBLU bid for SAVE; GOGO joining S&P600

•Indices: USA indices are sharply lower on the rate spike with QQQ the weakest index (-1.5%) SPY is below 450 which can accelerate moves to downside. SPY Support 447(200sma) 445 440 Resistance 450 452. QQQ support 355(20ema) 349 (50sma). Indices are underhedged and negative gamma which increases the risk of a large downdraft as puts are bought and volatility rises. FOMC minutes reaction will be important.

•Sectors: Leading Energy Commodities Lagging spec tech, semis, tech, China, Bonds

•Stocks to watch: OXY MOS BTU TSLA NVDA Spec Names: GOGO CLVS AMC

Pre-800ET

Earnings ARRY SIMPL TLRY

Indices XOP XLE DBC euro ARKK /btc SMH SOXX XLK ARKF QQQ faangmt KWEB XBI TLT TAN

S&P500 OXY MRO DVN APA SLB MOS HES CF PXD NVDA KMX AMD CCL TSLA BMY MRNA UAL DAL PYPL FB MSFT

Movers ARRY GOGO OXY KOS TLRY GBX GSK LEA AFRM JBLU DWAC AMC AMD UPST SAVE SQ AMD TSLA GME

WSB RIVN CCJ NVDA AFRM AMC NIO PLTR AMD PLUG BABA HOOD RBLX NET GME SPOT AMZN

High Short Interest  GOGO CLVS AMC AAL LAZR CVNA GME SPCE FUBO WISH

Trade Idea: SOXS
SOXS is an inverse ETF that shorts the semiconductors. NVDA, ASML, AMD are all weakening and this is a way to trade a basket. Given the premarket drop, would look for an opening bounce before adding a short to avoid shorting in the hole.