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Swing Trade Idea – May 12, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower curve flatter

•News: USA: PPI 830ET 30yr bond auction 1:01 Bitcoin: Tether fell below peg, Terra manager sold $3B of bitcoin to try to support; MSTR margin call level ~22k; bitcoin below major support and selling in bitcoin can leak into equity

•Stocks: DIS -5% miss, Q2 streaming guidance lower; BYND -27% huge miss; BROS -39% EPS miss; APP +12% guidance cut + buyback; COIN -9% MSTR -10% SI -7% bitcoin COUP GS downgrade to sell BMBL beat; ABC -9.7% WBA sold 6M shares DDS +7% beat; Nissan warns of flat profit due to chip shortage; F and GM downgraded by WFC; SONO beat

•Macro: Ahead of PPI print world markets are classic risk-off with US$, Yen, and Bonds leading.  Markets may find relief if PPI is below expectations but converse true. Much speculation on the FED put,  3000 -3700 is the expert range

•Indices: USA indices steadily falling overnight but are not short-term oversold. SPY is now between 390 and 385 gamma levels with 390 a major level. QQQ between 290 and 285 levels. Look for gamma levels to act as support and resistance. VIX futures are back inversion indicating high risk.  2.0% move based on volatility. Implied volatility is not signaling a bottom but most indicators are at bottoming levels.  AAPL TSLA  concerning

•Stocks to watch: TLT DIS  AAPL TSLA MSTR COIN Spec Names: APP COUP BYND

Pre-800ET

Earnings APP BAM BMBL SONO RIVN SIX TPR KT VOD BROS BYND MFC DIS

Indices Yen TLT AGG XLP SLV BLOK GDX ARKK ICLN bitcoin ICLN ARKF EEM QQQ euro

S&P500 TPR ALB ABC DIS F TSLA NVDA AAPL AMD

Movers CGEM ETNB BMBL WE BBLN STM NICE SIX BAM TPR KTOS ON BROS BYND VERU ABC COIN COUP DIS F GM

WSB RIVN COIN F CCJ TSLA AMC NVDA PLUG CLF AMZN NIO AMD

Trade Idea: COIN
COIN is continuing to slide with the issues with stablecoins.  Premarket low 47.6 can be used for a momentum short or look for a bounce to 51.3 to fail.  Puts at 45 and 40 will act as inflection levels.