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Swing Trade Idea – May 16, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bullish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower curve flatter

•News: USA: Empire State MFG Europe: Economic Forecast China: Retail Sales -11% Y-Y vs -6%; Industrial Prod. -2.9% vs 0.5; Credit growth 50% lower than expected; Rate cut expected

•Stocks: TWTR -9% Elon tweets; SAVE +14% reject JBLU offer NFLX  2% upgrade; CVNA +12% layoffs + short squeeze; SOFI TTD NIO upgrade; JPM upgrading China internet stocks; MANT acquired by Carlisle

•Macro: China’s econ data is very negative causing general market weakness.  India not exporting wheat lifting soft commodities and agg related stocks

•Indices: Global equity backdrop weak with USA indices slightly lower after Friday short squeeze SPY at key 400 gamma level and QQQ at key 300 level. Look for gamma levels to act as support and resistance. VIX futures are no longer front inverted pointing to short-term recovery.  1.8% move based on volatility.  High short interest names and spec tech are bid pointing to a continuation of the short squeeze; however, FAANGMT is lagging. Market dynamics usually support into Wed of Opex which can lead to positive markets

•Stocks to watch: JD NFLX MOS SAVE MT TWTR WIX GFI Spec Names: CVNA SOFI NIO DINO

Pre-800ET

Earnings MNDY SOHU TSEM WRBY WIX

Indices Euro SLV TLT JETS LIT EEM KWEB GDX SMH QQQ XLK XBI GLD IWM ARKK SPY

S&P500 NFLX MOS CFG EPAM ADM CI CF TWTR WYNN LVS FE LIN OXY AMD AMAT AAPL INTC ETSY FB DVN NEM

Movers SAVE CVNA MANT STNE SOFI MT COUR TTD IQ YOU AMC CHWY NFLX WIX NUTX OTLY RYAYY TWLO

WSB AMC GME CLF F COIN RIVN GLX HOOD

Trade Idea: NFLX
NFLX is trading higher after an upgrade by Wedbush. Not a long-term conviction idea but a bounce trade. Premarket high 194 with expected move +/-14 for week. Look for 200 as potential resistance.