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Swing Trade Idea – June 16, 2022

Market Setup pre-PPI

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Weak  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields higher and steeper;

•US$ lower: YEN+ Swissie+ Euro+

•News: USA: Philly Mfg 830ET; UE claims; Housing Starts;   SNB: Raised 50bps and reverse some massive currency purchases – concern since SNB big buyer of US securities; BOE: +25bps;  BOJ: Tonight – big pressure to maintain YCC Natgas: Russia cut natgas to Germany by 60% and Italy by 15% after Germany seized Gazprom German trading arm – coincident with PM visits to Kyiv

•Stocks: REV filed for bankruptcy; TSLA increased Model Y prices; BA DG upgraded; TWTR Elon speaking to employees; RACE plans to electrify fleet; ABT halting some of baby formula prod; MCD $1.5B fines to France CMC STLD beat

•Indices: USA indices declined overnight but bouncing premarket. Wed FOMC bounce was driven by put selling and not call buying. SPY support 370 Resistance 375, 380. QQQ support  275 resistance 280, 285.  VIX term structure inverted indicating high risk 2% move expected. Market is set-up for a trend day down should SPY breach 270 with 265 & 260 targets. Opening bounce likely but take caution on breaks of VWAP. Potential for short cover rally intraday – watch 10yr yield, vix and US$ for reversal clues.

•Stocks to watch: TWTR  BABA TSLA NVDA AAPL Spec Names: SARK

Pre-800ET

Earnings CMC KR

Indices ARKK KWEB EWZ ARKF SMH EFA XBI QQQ XLK XLB IWM SOXX

S&P500 TWTR NCLH TSLA LIN FCX NVDA ETSY CZR WDC RCL WBD PYPL GM MU AMAT AMZN MRO

IWM CMC SBH AI BE PLUG M MSTR AMC PLUG AA APPS NVAX X CLF RRR TPH

WSB NET BABA AFRM COIN NIO PLUG AMC TSLA MSTR NVDA GME CLF AMZN CCJ RIVN

Trade Idea: SARK
SARK is an idea should markets breakdown.  Currently markets are bouncing premarket. SARK makes sense if indices break vwap after opening bounce and market internals breakdown. Premarket high 70.27 for a momentum trade