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Swing Trade Idea – July 05, 2022

Market Setup

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower and flatter;

•US$ Higher: YEN-  Euro- GBP – CAD – Swissie –

•News: USA: Factory orders 10ET Europe: German trade balance -1B vs 4.2B Services PMI 53 vs 52.4; Norway natgas strike;  ECB fractured QT plan criticized by Bundesbank; Eurozone recession meme strong China: More lockdowns

Stocks: TSLA production -17.9% Q-Q ; STLA supply chain > 2200k fewer vehicles; HP downgrade; OXY Buffet bought 9.9M shares

•General: Leading: bitcoin, energy Lagging: EFA semiconductors mining spec tech

•Indices: USA indices bounced Mon but currently pulling back with strong US$ and China lockdowns. SPY above key 375 gamma level which is potential support with 370 below and resistance 380 and 385. QQQ below 280 large gamma level with support at 275 and 270  resistance 280 285 290.  VIX term structure uninverted but high at 28.7,  1.8% move expected. Bearish setup with US$ strength, and weak global equity markets. USA indices oversold so expecting a bounce but SPY 375 needs to hold.

•Stocks to watch  TSLA TSN AMD NVDA CLF OXY QGEN VRTX TLT Spec Names: BGEN

Pre-800ET

Earnings

Indices /btc XLE XOP EFA SMH XME ARKK /6e ICLN SOXX XLB SOXX IWM QQQ XLK GDX EWZ faangmt SPY KWEB

S&P500 OXY LIN FCX HPQ MOS NCLH RCL AAL NVDA JPM TXN AMAT BA UAL MU GM F WBD AMD

IWM AR CROX OVV AA X SAVE CLF PLUG LPSN

WSB BABA CLF BA NVDA PLUG AMZN AMD TSLA

Trade Idea: AMD
AMD has moved lower with semiconductors after the MU report. Large drop possible with little volume support below. Premarket low 72.13 can be used for a trigger or look for a bounce to enter short. AMD > 74.25 may mean a bounce is underway and spec long can be traded.