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Swing Trade Idea – September 23, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ +.87% EUR -.89% YEN -.27% GBP -1.94%

•News: USA: Services/Flash PMI 945ET, Powell 14ET Europe: Weak PMIs below expectations  UK: Tax cuts and energy subsidies kill pound

•Stocks: FDX -3% EPS,  COST -3% Margins lower

•General: Lagging: Spec tech, Oil producers, gold miners, China Internet

•Indices: Global assets are weak due to strong US$ (weak euro and pound).  S&P has been falling since the European open and in small bounce since 7ET.   SPY is at 370 gamma level which can serve as a pivot level with  375 and 380 targets above and support 368, 365, and 362. VIX 29 implies a 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are reacting violently to economic data and FED speakers hence take care at 945ET and 14ET.  In theory, markets are oversold and prime for a bounce but volatility is suggesting an elevated risk for a larger downdraft as is the volatility in the bond market

•Stocks to watch  LLY CS FCX RIO NVDA TSLA AAPL Spec Names CANO

Pre-800ET

Earnings COST FDX

Indices ARKK GDX XOP EFA XLE /btc

S&P500 FCX NCLH DVN FANG APA OXY F SLB COST F RCL

IWM AA AR MSTR PBF OVV PLUG LTHM GLNG ESTE CELH BTU NVAX SAVA RUN

WSB AFRM F COIN NET PLUG CLF NIO NVDA AMD GME RIVN TSLA
Trade Idea: SPY
SPY is under pressure due to strong US$ and higher yields.  Straddle approach today. Above 370, look for 375 and 380. Below 368, look for 365, 362, and 360. Potential for short squeeze today; however risk of large downdraft remains so take care.