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Swing Trade Idea – September 27, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bullish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•US$ -.47% EUR +.35% YEN +.15% GBP +1.14%

•News: USA: Powell 730, Bullard 955ET Consumer Confidence 10ET Durable Goods 830ET

•Stocks: Crypto: COIN MSTR SI Energy: APA DVN OXY Alt Energy: ENPH SEDG PLUG BE SPWR Metals: FCX AA CLF VALE LTHM

•General: Leading: Bitcoin SmallCapBiotech Spec Tech Lagging: Staples

•Indices: Global assets higher with a drop in US% and yields.  The setup looks like a short squeeze but caveat that on Monday the squeeze failed. SPY 369.4 is below the 370 gamma level which can serve as a pivot level with  373, 375 targets above and support 368, 367, 365. VIX 29.95 implies a 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves. In theory, markets are oversold and prime for a bounce but volatility suggests an elevated risk for a larger downdraft as is the volatility in the bond market.  Take care at 955ET & 10ET as Bullard and macro data can move markets. Set-up is for a broad bounce with bitcoin, spec tech, and metals leading; however, be on the look for sellers. SPY 370 is the key level to move above and hold.

•Stocks to watch  CZR TSLA AAPL DVN FCX PDD CNQ Spec Names COIN CVNA LCID

Pre-800ET

Earnings NEOG

Indices /btc ARKK XBI GDX ICLN TAN XLE XOP IWM QQQ XLB SOXX KWEB XLY

S&P500 CZR PLD TSLA AAL SEDG APA DVN FCX ENPH AMZN VLO PARA WYNN

IWM MSTR BTU SI LTHM PLUG RUN CLF X SM BE AA SPWR OSTK APPS GME LAUR

WSB COIN NIO PLUG NLY NET AFRM CLF TSLA RIVN AMZN F BA GME NVDA

Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL was one of the few stocks higher Monday and may be a play with EOQ window dressing as it has outperformed the S&P500 this quarter. Monday high 153.5 is a momentum trigger with a target of 157 or pullback >= 152. A break below 150 is a signal that AAPL and likely the market might break down