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Swing Trade Idea – September 30, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup

Market Setup- Pre 830ET PRE PCE

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral/bullish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•US$ +.18% EUR -.28% YEN +.11% GBP +.15%

•News: USA: PCE 830ET Brainard 9ET UofM Consumer Sentiment 10ET Bowman 11ET Williams 415ET Europe: CPI 10% y-y vs 9.7% China: Caixin MFG PMI 48.1 vs 49.7 Non-mfg PMI 50.6 vs 52.6 Japan: Ind Prod m/m 2.7% vs -0.2%

•Stocks:  NKE -10.8% inventories +44% China Rev -16% NA  Rev +13% Sympathy: LULU UAA DKS DECK FL ONON SKX ASO ADDYY

MU +1.98% guidance – Capex Cut 50% Lower PC, cellphone Sympathy AMAT LRCX KLAC ASML

•General: Leading: Bonds bitcoin Financials Lagging: Lithium Semiconductor

•Indices: USA indices are mildly positive ahead of PCE data. Indices rose with the Asian open with a drop in yields but have been falling since 6ET. SPY 363.5  is below 365 gamma level which can serve as a pivot level with  370, 375 targets above and support  360. VIX 30.9  implies a 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves. NKE earnings will weigh on many competitors as prices will be cut to reduce inventory. MU guidance weak is weighing on Semiconductor equipment companies but also negative for cellphone and PC companies.  PCE may sharply move markets. End of the quarter, look for high volatility on open and at close. There are factors that are both positive and negative. Key SPY levels, 365 and 360.

•Stocks to watch  MU JPM BAC NKE AMAT NVDA AAPL Spec Names CCL GNRC

Pre-800ET

Earnings MU NKE

Indices TLT/btc XLF ICLN XLB XLU XLV LIT SOXX KWEB XLY

S&P500 NCLH MU RCL ENPH DXC LVS NKE LRCX AMAT KLAC

IWM FRO X MSTR RCII PRTA CROX

WSB RIVN COIN PLUG NLY TSLA CLF AMZN NIO

Trade Idea: LULU
LULU is moving lower with NKE earnings. Premarket low 287 is a level for a momentum short with target 260, which is the June low.  LULU PE 36 is high so susceptible. Trade will work better if the market moves lower post PCE