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Swing Trade Idea – October 05, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET 

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ +.76% EUR -.83% YEN -.32% GBP -1%

•News: USA: ADP Jobs 208k vs 200k; ISM Service PMI 10ET Europe: Services PMI 48.8; German PMI 45 vs 45.5

•Stocks:  TWTR -.35% Surged Tues as Elon agreed to honor deal TSLA -1.45%; AMZN -.98% freezing hiring in retail biz; HSBC -3.4% Selling Canadian Biz; JD +3% PDD +1.3% Hang Seng catch-up;  HELE -15% -guidance; F GS upgrade

•General: Leading: China internet Lagging: Gold Miners; ARKK, EFA, IWM, GLD, bitcoin, metals

•Indices: Global indices are pulling back premarket post Tues short squeeze. US$ and yields higher are weighing on the market and most negative for commodities and low-quality companies. SPY 374.5  is above 370 support gamma level with 375 target above. SPY is above the weekly expected 367.4. VIX 29.3  implies a 1.8% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves. Risk is favorable for SPY to pull back with ADP not indicating issues with the job market and important for 370 to hold. The strongest bounce names from Tues i.e. metals, airlines, retailers, and spec tech are potential shorts today. ISM 10ET will be market moving.  TSLA reaction to TWTR deal is key today.

•Stocks to watch  JD EMR F GM FCX TSLA  AAPL GS AMZN Spec Names DNA

Pre-800ET

Earnings HELE

Indices KWEB GDX ICLN ARKK IWM EFA GLD XLB XLF QQQ SOXX

S&P500 EMR F CHD GM RCL FCX DAL NCLH JPM GS AAL WYNN MS LUV LVS NEM TSLA DAL UAL CAT

IWM CCRN FRO RUN GT NVAX CLF GME PLUG X AA LTHM CNK BE

WSB F BABA AFRM CLF PLUG GME COIN TSLA BA HOOD UPST RIVN NET

Trade Idea: AMZN
AMZN is one of the many stocks that short-squeezed Tues. News today is a hiring freeze indicative of concerns.  The short idea below premarket low 119 with targets 118-114. Average daily move 3.36%