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Swing Trade Idea – October 06, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET 

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral/Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields flat

•US$ +.4% EUR -.34% YEN -.2% GBP -.87%

•News: USA: UE claims 830ET; FOMC Cook 13ET Challenger Job Cuts 730ET 67% Y-Y Europe: German factor orders -2.4% m/m vs -0.8% ECB monetary policy meeting 

•Stocks:  SHEL -4.8% EPS lower margins; TSLA -1.2% Downgrade STZ, MKC, CAG earnings; PINS +5.8% GS upgrade; TTWO +3% GS upgrade; MT -6% UBS downgrade

•General: Leading: Bitcoin, Brazil, GLD, TLT Lagging: EFA, XLE, XOP, XLB, ICLN, SMH, XLU

•Indices: USA indices pulled back overnight and bounced since 6ET. SPY 376  is above the 375 gamma level with a 380 target above and support at 375 and 374 premarket low. SPY is above the weekly expected move so now stretched with pullback risk. VIX 28.8  implies a 1.8% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves.  UE claims were slightly higher than expected which may be slightly positive. Ahead of Non-Farm payrolls, expect range bound market with SPY between 380 and 370

•Stocks to watch  PINS TTWO AAPL TSLA SHEL Spec Names PINS

Pre-800ET

Earnings CAG MKC SHEL STZ

Indices /btc TLT ARKK XLE XLB EFA XOP XLY XLU IWM SPY DIA XLV ICLN

S&P500 TTWO STZ CAG BK  FCX TWTR T NCLH TSLA APA COP MRO LIN VLO DVN AAL WYNN

IWM SAH FRO  SI T KRG CLF X PLUG PTEN SM AR

WSB HOOD TSLA PLUG COIN CLF F CLF

Trade Idea: PINS
PINS is higher on a GS upgrade and the target raised to 31. A premarket high of 26.25 can be used for a momentum trigger or pullback >= 25.  ATR 1.2. Note higher beta stock so will trade with QQQ.