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Swing Trade Idea – October 20, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre 830ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –Neutral/bullish global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ -.36% EUR +.43% YEN +.06% GBP +0.27%

•News: USA: Philly Mfg, UE claims  830ET CB leading Index 10ET; FOMC (3) 1330 ET UK: Govt turmoil as ministers resign Japan: Threatened action to support Yen

•Stocks:  TSLA -5% Rev Miss Targets: 300-330 IBM 3.7% beat;  AAL DHR PM T Positive EPS reaction AA DOW KEY KMI Negative EPS reaction SMCI +17.8% beat and raise; ERIC -15% EPS miss; ALL -10% -guidance AA -10% miss –guidance want ban on Russian AL

•General: Leading: China, Energy, Airlines, Gold Miners, Biotech Lagging: ARKK XLY

•Indices: USA indices rising premarket with US$ and yields rising. SPY 370.3  is above 370 major gamma level with 375  resistance above and support at 370, 365, and 360 gamma levels. VIX 30.3  implies a 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves. Potential range day with SPY 275-265. Bullish with SPY > 370 and QQQ > 270. Commodity related names and emerging markets can benefit if US$ and yields continue to fall

•Stocks to watch  IBM AAL SLB T AAPL  AA TSLA Spec Names SMCI CFLT DDOG

Pre-800ET

Earnings IBM AAL DHR DHR PM T AA DOW KEY TSLA KMI

Indices KWEB XOP XLE JETS EEM GDX XBI euro GLD DIA IWM XLB XLY ARKK LIT TLT

S&P500 IBM AAL HAL T EOG SLB DVN OXY TWTR CTLT LUV DHR ALL TSLA KEY GNRC HPE KMI DOW

IWM SMCI LBRT T WWW OVV NVAX AA VCYT RUN NOVA DNLI

WSB NIO BABA TSLA RIVN

Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA is lower premarket after the earnings report and in play today. Straddle approach: premarket low 207.4 can be used for a fade and premarket high 212.4 for a long.  Analysts have reduced targets to 300-355 but still have positive ratings.