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Swing Trade Idea – October 7, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET 

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral/Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ -.18% EUR +.1% YEN +.13% GBP +.5%

•News: USA: Payrolls 830ET Williams 10ET  Europe: German retail sales -1.3% m/m Industrial Production -.8% m/m Canada: Employment 830ET Cannabis: Biden pardoned simple Cannabis possession

•Stocks:  AMD –5.3%  Rev fct cut by $1B due to PC slowdown. Impact: NVDA INTC TSM SOXX DELL HPQ; CVS -4.8% CMS downgrades Aetna plan DKNG +5.4% ESPN Deal; LEVI -4.3% -guidance; TLRY, CGC, MSOS bounce on Cannabis news DXCM +6.9% upgrade; CS +6%  $3B buyback PAYO +8.9% added to S&P600

•General: Leading: Energy, Small Caps Lagging: Semis, China Internet, Spec tech

•Indices: USA indices consolidating ahead of jobs report. SPY 373  is below 375 gamma level with 380 target above and support at 371.3 premarket low and 370, 365, 360 gamma levels. SPY is above the weekly expected move so now stretched with pullback risk. VIX 29.6  implies 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves.  Non-farm payrolls higher than expected will likely lead to equities lower, US$ higher and bonds lower and payroll lower will lead to the opposite. Williams speaking at 10ET is important as #3 at the Fed.

•Stocks to watch:  DKNG CS OXY DXCM TSLA  AAPL  AMD NVDA Spec Names AEHR TLRY

Pre-800ET

Earnings LEVI

Indices XLE EFA IWM XLB DIA SOXX SMH KWEB ARKK GLD faangmt

S&P500 DXCM AMD CVS NVDA CNC INTC PENN HPQ AMAT LRCX STX

IWM LNTH LTHM PENN

WSB AMD NVDA NIO BABA HOOD

Trade Idea: AMD
AMD is in play on a warning of lower revenue due to slowing PC sales.  Potential for a reflexive bounce with long > 64.50 that will likely fail. Potential short < 63.5. AMD has limited support below until 55 for a potential swing short. PE 29 is not cheap with a slowing market.