Swing Trade Idea – November 16, 2022
Color Key: Positive– Neutral– Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: The yields are lower
•US$ -.36% Euro +.5% Yen -.26% GBP +0.33%
•News: USA: Retail Sales 830ET; Ind Prod 915ET FED Heads: 9:50,10ET Canada: CPI 830ET Japan: Machine Orders -4.6% m/m vs 0.3% Europe: Lagarde 10ET UK: CPI 11.1% Y-Y vs 10.7% Europe: Poland thinks missile was Ukranian which in my opinion is boosting the Euro.
Stocks: TGT -13% displays a large earnings miss. All retailers are lower and COST, DLTR, AMZN, and BBY have layoffs. AAP displays EPS miss, LOW +1% displays a beat, and CCL -13% displays a convertible offering.
•General: Leading: The Euro, KWEB, and Energy Gold Healthcare Lagging: Retail Spec tech
•Indices: The USA indices are consolidating before the retail sales report. In my opinion, the target earnings indicate that consumers are spending less on discretionary but I feel that WMT indicates that spending on staples. The Macro setup is mixed with yields that are lower but the US$ is lower, primarily versus the Euro which is higher showing no data. The SPY displays a 398 support 395 resistance 400. The very high SPX open interest displays 4,000 which in my opinion can act as resistance (likely) or a squeeze above. The very high, same-day, SPX options trading is, in my opinion, driving markets predicting large moves in either direction. The Premarket is set up slightly risk-off. In my opinion, the FOMC speakers today are important, with Williams 9:50ET being the most important.”
Stocks to watch: LOW BP BABA TSLA TGT AMZN AAP CCL COST
Spec Names ZIM
Pre-800ET
Earnings AAP GLNG LOW TGT ZIM
Indices: Euro XLE EFA GLD XLV TLT XRT /btc ARKK XLY EWZ LIT EEM XLP
S&P500 LOW LNC XYL LIN DFS MGM AAP TGT CCL NCLH ETSY BBY DLTR DG GPC RCL RL VFC COST AMZN AMD ORLY WMT EBAY
IWM NTRA FRO M SBRA AEO SBRA GIII OSTK URBN TWST AQUA BJ X
WSB BABA NIO AMZN AMD NVDA NET
Movers GLNG ALC ZIM NTES GSK TTE LOW LNC BP BABA SNY SHEL RELX ING TSM LIN AAP TGT CCL CUK WOLF NCLH KSS BEKE ETSY FLNG JWN WSM M BBY DLTR W GPS AEO
Trade Idea: AMZN
AMZN is a straddle idea ahead of retail sales. Retail is weak after the TGT earnings report. The Premarket AMZN support is 97. If AMZN is below 97 I will consider a fade idea with a target of 95. However, should the market bounce post retail sales above 98.25, I will set my target at 100 and 102.
