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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 02, 2022

    Dec 02, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – December 02, 2022

    Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup – Pre Jobs Report. Market pulling back on report

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Positive global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are lower

    •Currencies:  US$ -24%, Euro +.17%, Yen +.87%, GBP +.15%

    •News: USA: Non-farm payroll 8:30 AM ET Europe: PPI -2.9% m/m, French Ind Prod -2.6% m/m China: Covid restriction meme continues

    •Stocks: MRVL -4.7% guide down VEEV -3% EPS; ULTA +0.8% EPS, ZS -9% EPS, PD PATH positive EPS moves

    •General: Leading: China Internet, Bitcoin, Spec tech, euro  Lagging:  Gold Miners, Semis, Bonds

    •Indices: The USA is consolidating the pre payrolls report. In my opinion, the US$ and yields are lower but are not lifting the markets like normal.  The SPY $407 displays a support of $406, $405, and $400 with a resistance of $410, $415, and $420. The QQQ $293 displays a support of $292 and $290 with a resistance of $295. The non-farm payrolls will move markets $830. In my analysis the market is leaning towards a long and I expect that a weaker number with bad news is actually good news logic making the risk a strong number.  I see that in my analysis Semis are weak today with MRVL displaying a lower guidance and may weigh on NVDA and AVGO.

    •Stocks to watch:  AMZN, NIO, TSLA, ZS, AMBA Spec Names  PATH, PD, ASAN

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings AOUT, ASAN, AMBA, MRVL, PATH, PD, ULTA, VEEV, ZS

    Indices KWEB, /btc, EWZ, ARKK, ICLN, euro, GDX, SOXX, TLT, GLD, SMH, faangmt, XHB

    S&P500 ULTA, LYV, LLY

    IWM BEAM, FRO, ADTN, CALE, AMBA

    WSB NIO, BABA, AFRM

    Movers SPB, PATH, SMAR, PD, BEKE, BEAM, PHG, NIO, PDD, SBSW, LOGI, ULTA, ASAN, ZS, MRVL, VEEV, CHPT, FLNG, GFI, SHLS
    My Trade Idea: SPY
    In my opinion, the SPY is pulling back after the non-farm payrolls were $267k vs $200. Currently the $400 premarket is an important support and displays a high gamma level which to me, is a key pivot level.  I will consider a long > $402 and fade below $399.5. I will also watch for positive UUP and negative for gold and TLT.

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