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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 22, 2022

    Dec 22, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – December 22, 2022

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup – Pre830ET

    •Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Negative global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are lower

    •Currencies:  US$ -.05% Euro +.14% Yen -0.01% GBP -.28%

    •News:  UK: GDP q/q -.3% vs -.2% USA: Final GDP q/q UE claims 8:30 ET; CB leading Index m/m 10:00 ET

    •Stocks: MU -4% Weak forecast, 10% layoff, Capex cut; KMX -12% Big miss, used car sales down 24% 

    •General: Leading: Energy, China Internet, Lagging:  Semiconductors, faangmt

    •Indices: USA indices are declining since the European open after Wednesday’s short squeeze. Micron shows a poor forecast for 2023 and n my opinion will weigh on Nasdaq stocks and the KMX poor earnings will weigh on auto stocks. The global indices weakness is not supportive however, the slightly lower yields are positive with the SPY 385.18 showing a resistance of 387, 390 and a support  of 385, 380, 375 and 370. The QQQ 272 displays a support of 270, 269.7, and 265 with a resistance of 275, 277.5, 280. The Vix futures 22.9 implies a 1.5% daily move. In my analysis there is a large JPM SPX position at 3835 which may lead to somecstickiness until Dec. 30 roll.  I believe that the SPY 385 and QQQ 270 are important bull/bear pivot levels today. I will be looking for a reaction in semis: MU, AMD, NVDA, AMAT and auto: KMX, AN, AAP, F, GM and of course faangmt. CLI at 10ET may be market moving given low liquidity.

    •Stocks to watch:  COP, EDU, BABA, COP, TSLA, MU, NVDA, AAPL, KMX, Spec Names FUTU, MRTX

    Pre-800ET

    •Earnings KMX, MU, PAYX

    •Indices KWEB, XOP, XLE, /btc, TLT,  SOXX, QQQ, LIT, faangmt, GDX

    •S&P500 COP, OXY, DVN, TSLA, NFLX, MRNA, GD, KMX, MU, AMAT, F, NVDA, AAP, AMD, META, WDC, PG, JPM, MSFT, AAPL

    •IWM MRTX, RAMP, CLF, OVV, FATE, MDGL

    •WSB BABA, CLF, F, AMD, NVDA

    •Movers MRTX, FUTU, BILI, LI, EDU, JD, MLKN, CLF, EQNR, RAMP, TS, PAYX, KMX, AN, FATE, MU, AMAT, MDGL, LRCX, STM

    My Trade Idea:FUTU
    FUTU is the leading Chinese trading company, therefore in my opinion, is risky! In my opinion, a swing trade idea in my analysis is a long potential if the price is > 62.7 and the support displays 60.  There is potential for a deeper pullback so I will wait for a clear entry signal.

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