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Swing Trade Idea – January 05, 2023

Color Key – Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup – Pre8:30ET Pre-ADP

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are flat

•Currencies:  US$ .14%, Euro -0.08%, Yen -0.16%, GBP -.48%

News:  USA: ADP jobs, Job Cuts, UE claims 8:30 Services PMI 945ET; Crude Inventories 11ET Europe: PPI -.9% m/m vs -0.8%

•Stocks: AMZN +1.4% Increasing job cuts;  WDC +4.8% merger talks restarted;  COIN -5.8% downgrade SI -38% large asset drop cutting 40% of staff  Earnings CAG HELE STZ WBA

•General: Leading: Brazil, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Lagging:  China Internet, Gold Miners, Materials

•Indices: Global indices display as neutral. Macro is negative with yields higher, the US$ is higher and energy is higher. SPY 382.7 has a resistance of 385 and 390 with support of 380 and 375. Vix futures 22.5 implies a 1.4% daily move. QQQ 265 support of 265 and 260 with a resistance of 267 and 270. The market has shifted to a moderate risk off after ADP and job cuts data but has not broken key levels specifically with SPY 380 and QQQ 265.  The market has breakdown risk; however ADP Friday data is pending and may keep indices in check.

•Stocks to watch: AMZN, AAPL, WDC, MSFT, TSLA, BABA, Spec Names: NEOG, NVCR, HKD, RKLY

Pre-8:00ET

Earnings CAG, LW, STZ, WBA

Indices EWZ, XLE, XOP, LIT, JETS, XME, XLY, KWEB, GDX, XLB, GLD, XLB, ARKF, XLV

S&P500 WDC, FCX, AMZN, CHTR, HAL, OXY, ORCL, MRO, LIN, WBA, AXP, COF, TPR

IWM NEOG, FGEN, FRO, STNG, AA, SM

WSB AMZN, NIO, BABA, WEN, COIN

Movers NVCR, ZLAB, WEC, CRSP, MT, DOCU, FRO, AMZN, FCX, STNG, TS, HSBC, BHP, SBSW, OVV, FUTU, ORCL, COIN, GPS, HCM, GDS, LIN, ALLY, CRWD, DB, WBA, SHOP, JWN

My Trade Idea: SPY
Indices are pulling back post the ADP report which showed more jobs were created.  In my analysis, I think that the SPY will be opening with negative momentum which can lead to a potential bounce or breakdown.  I will consider fades below 380 with a potential bounce between 378-375. A break of 375 could lead to 370. I am not expecting a major break with non-farm payrolls due Friday. Ready