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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 06, 2023

    Jan 06, 2023 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – January 06, 2023

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup – Pre8:30ET Pre-ADP

    •Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are higher

    •Currencies:  US$ +.48%, Euro -0.34%, Yen -1.07%, GBP -.48%

    News:  USA: Non-farm payrolls at 8:30ET; ISM Services PMI at 10:00 am ET; FOMC speakers 11:15 am ET Europe: CPI 9.2% Y/Y vs 9.6% Retail Sales 5.2% m/m vs 0.5% Canada: Employment 830ET; Ivey PMI at 10;00 am ET

    Stocks: TSLA -6.8% China Price Cuts;  COST +2% higher sales report;  LULU +1% upgrade LUV -3% Hit from flight cancellations BBBY bankruptcy soon SYF DFS downgrades

    General: Leading: Brazil, Lithium, US$, Clean Energy Lagging:  China Internet, Spec tech, bitcoin, consumer discretionary, TLT

    Indices: Global indices display as neutral ahead of the US jobs report. Macro is negative with yields higher and US$ higher. SPY 378.8 has a resistance of 380, 385, and 390 with support of 375 and 377. Vix futures 22.5 implies a 1.5% daily move. In my analysis, SPY displays an expected move of +/-4 today with implied volatility 100% higher than next week which can lead to a strong move later in the day. TSLA weakness weighing on QQQ which is testing the lower edge of the expected move for the week. Risk is to the upside with the market hedged after a strong ADP report. Bull/bear levels SPY 380 and QQQ 263.5.

     Stocks to watch COST, AAPL, BIIB, GFI, FSLR, MSFT, TSLA Spec Names HKD, WWE, JKS, LAC

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings

    Indices LIT, EWZ, ICLN, XLP, UUP, GLD, DIA, IWM, KWEB, ARKK /btc, XLY, euro, QQQ

    S&P500 COST, TAP, BAX, BIIB, TSLA, SBNY, VFC, BBWI, ULTA, LUV, SYF, LNV, DFS

    IWM FRO, NOVA, SPWR, RUN, LTHM, FATE, NUVA, NBRO

    WSB WWE, TSLA, NIO, RIVN, COIN, GME, BABA

    Movers HKD, WWE, SWIR, JKS, FRO, COST, EURN, BHP, PVH, FSLR, TAP, LULU, FATE, XPEV, LI, NVCR, TSLA, NIO, DADA, BILI, MSTR, JD, FUTU, PDD

    My Trade Idea: SPY
    S&P500 is reacting positively to payrolls report. Long potential > 381.5 with a target of 385. Potential fade if SPY < 380. In my opinion, implied volatility is very elevated which can lead to an outsized move to upside later in the day if SPY > 380. Converse potential if SPY < 380.

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