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Swing Trade Idea – January 19, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ -.07%, Euro 0.14%, Yen 0.0%, AUD -1.0%

News:  USA: Philly Fed, UE claims 830ET, Brainard 1:15ET Japan: Trade Balance worse; CPI 1830ET Europe: Lagarde spoke

•Stocks: PG  -3%, DFS -8%, AA -6% Earnings; AAPL -1.3%, NVDA -2.4% TSLA -2%, FAANGMT stocks giving back squeeze

General: Leading: Gold Euro  Lagging: Emerging markets, Brazil, Spec tech, Airlines, Semis

•Indices: USA indices selling are continuing post European open. Macro setup are negative with global indices lower, yields are lower but the US$ is lower which is a mild positive. SPY 388 has minor support with 385 and 380 gamma levels which can act as pivot levels 390 and 395 gamma levels which can act as resistance. S&P is now back in negative gamma which means selling can accelerate and bounces can be violent. With Jan options expiration Friday there is less support from flows.  Philly Fed and UE claims may move markets premarket. Brainard at 1:15 is important as she is #2 in the Fed and a dove. In my opinion, the market will react to her comments.

Stocks to watch EDU, DFS, AA, TSLA, AMZN, PG, NFLX,  Spec Names  COIN, PLUG, RBLX

Pre-800ET

Earnings AA, DFS, FHN, KMI, SNV, CMA, FAST, FITB, KEY, MTB, PG, TFC

Indices GLD, euro, EEM, EWZ, ARKK, JETS, ARKF, ICLN, SOXX, QQQ, SMH, IWM, XOP, XLB, XLK

S&P500 DFS, CCL, FCX, SCHW, SYF, VNO, DXC, NVDA, TSLA, NCLH, VFC, UAL, AAL, PG, AMZN, PYPL, MRNA, CAT

IWM FRO, SMCI, DCPH, AA, PLUG, NTLA, LTHM, GME, TGTX, RUN, AI, BE, X, SPWR, CLF

WSB PLUG, COIN, AFRM, TSLA, NVDA, GME, UPST, AMZN, NIO, AMD, MSTR, CLF, RIVN, NET

Movers HKD, EDU, KT, FRO, BTI, RBLX, DFS, AA, PLUG, CHPT, CCL, COIN, FCX, SCHW, SYF, VNO, U, DXC, LTHM, TSLA, NVDA

My Trade Idea: SPY
SPY oversold at minor volume with support at 388. Straddle approach for today with fade below 387.5  with targets 385, and 380. 390 is the key gamma level above which can act as resistance where bounces can be faded. In my analysis, a break above 391.50 could indicate a strong bounce where 395 would be a target. In my opinion, SPY is negative gamma which increases moves in both directions but selling will accelerate as the price falls through the 385 level. Expect a bounce at the open as shorts cover but may be a head fake so take care.