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Swing Trade Idea – January 24, 2023

Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, Asia –  Slight negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•Currencies:  US$ -.06%, Euro +0.08%, Yen +0.3%, GBP -.54%

News:  USA: Services/MFG PMI 9:45am ET, Richmod Mfg 945am ET Japan: MFG PMI 48.9 vs 49.4 Europe: Mixed PMI MFG PMI 48.8 Services 50.7 UK: MFG PMI 46.7 Services PMI  48

•Stocks: GE +1.6% EPS beat ; RTX +.78% EPS beat;  MMM -4.3% EPS miss 2500 job cuts JNJ -.5% EPS beat on lower sales AMD -2.5% downgrade target 80; MGA -2.8% lower EPS guide;  LMT +1.75% EPS beat; AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA trading lower premarket

•General: Leading: Bonds, Gold Lagging: Semis, Emerging Markets, bitcoin, China Internet

Indices: USA indices have a slight pullback with the Nasdaq displaying the weakest. Macro setup is mixed with yields being lower, US$ is flat and energy higher, and global equity markets slightly lower. SPY 399.7 is at a major 400 gamma level with resistance at 403 and 405 and support of 395 and 390 gamma levels. QQQ 288 has a resistance of 290 and support of 285 and 280. Monday’s short squeeze left QQQ at the top of the expected move for the week so further upside is not likely ahead of MSFT earnings. In my opinion, I am not seeing short squeeze signs in the premarket today but that can change once the market opens, especially if there is a drop in the open. Potential weakness on open in the short squeeze names i.e. AMD, NVDA, GOOGL, and ARKK stocks unless the squeeze continues

Stocks to watch: LMT, AMD, NVDA, TSLA,  JNJ, LULU, MMM Spec Names S, CRWD, TGTX

Pre-800ET

Earnings GE, HAL, JNJ, DHI, MMM, RTX, DHR, VZ

Indices TLT, GLD, GDX, SOXX, SMH, EEM, /btc, KWEB, IVZ

S&P500 GE, JNJ, HAL, XYL, DHI, UHS, AMD, MMM, ZION, MOS, NVDA, GOOG, CVS, BWA

IWM TGTX, HASI, CAKE, CALM, OVV

WSB RTX, COIN, AMD, NVDA

Movers LYFT, TGTX, CC, HASI, GE, JNJ, PLRX, MMM, VZ, PTON, GFI, AZN, AU, AMD, ZION, COIN, MOS, LULU, CAKE, W, ALV, PHG, GOOG, NVDA, ASML, SHOP

My Trade Idea: AMD
In my analysis, AMD is a faded idea but a potentially dangerous one. AMD had a 14% squeeze Monday following an upgrade and today is pulling back from overbought with a downgrade from Bernstein. Monday’s high was 77, premarket 74 with a gap below to 72.  Furthermore, I will look for a bounce on open to fail to enter a fade. The market is exuberant so potential for a major bounce.