.

Swing Trade Idea – January 30, 2023

Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong Asia –  Mild Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ .1%, Euro +0.28%, Yen -.12%

News:  Europe: Spanish CPI 5.8% vs 4.9%, German GDP q/q -0.2% vs 0%

Stocks: SOFI  +6% EPS beat smaller loss; LCID +3% rumor of buyer; BIDU +1.8% announced chat GP product; PHG +5.8% EPS beat (30% lower) cutting 13% of staff; TSLA +.37% massive gamma squeeze Friday; JD -4% BABA -5.4% FUTU -4.2% China Internet profit taking

General: Leading: US$ GLD Lagging: Semis, Clean Energy, TLT, technology, airlines

Indices: USA indices have been declining since the Asian open. Macro setup is slightly negative with global equities lower and yields higher, but US$ slightly lower, and energy higher. SPY 402 has the support of 400, and 395, and resistance of 405 and 410. QQQ 293 has a resistance of 295 and support of 290, 288, and 285. Dearth of hard data today so markets are free to move on flows.  Gamma and short squeezes are daily events with 60% of SPX options having zero days to expiration. In my opinion, the SPY 400 and QQQ 290 are key levels today. I will be looking for bounces off these levels should they be tested and I will look for a sharp break should they not hold. FAANGMT ex-TSLA is weak and last week’s behavior was to buy dips so there is a default assumption but I will be prepared for a potential wave of profit-taking ahead of FOMC Wed. In my analysis, the US$ is the indicator to watch to signal that selling can accelerate.

Stocks to watch TSLA, OKTA, AMD, AAPL, BABA Spec Names AXTA

Pre-800ET

Earnings OKTA, PHG

Indices Euro, EWZ, KWEB, ARKK, EEM, XLK, QQQ, SOXX, faangmt, IWM, JETS

S&P500 CL, LVS, GM, WYNN, NVDA, CCL, PYPL, KMI, QCOM, GNRC, WBD, MSFT, QCOM, WBD, MSFT, EW, ETSY, META

IWM CALM, PLUG, APPS, IMVT, GT, SKT, RUN, SPWR, DDD, AI, BTU,

WSB RIVN, BABA, GME, AFRM, COIN, PLUG, NVDA, NIO, UPST, NET

Movers LCID, CVAC, PHG, SAP, BIDU, RIVN, AXTA, AZN, CALM, CL, GDS, BILI, DADA, BABA, HCM, FUTU, VIPS, MLCO, JD, PDD, SE, GME, W, U 

My Trade Idea:SPY
In my analysis, S&P500 pulled back overnight, after Friday’s short squeeze. 400 is a major level where I believe that a bounce or breakdown is expected. 405 is a level where resistance is expected and acceleration if the breakout reaches my 408, and 410 targets.