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Swing Trade Idea February 14th, 2023

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET PRE CPI Report

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•Currencies:  US$ -.37% Euro +0.38% YEN +.24% GBP +.61%

News: USA: CPI 830ET; Logan, Harker, Williams FOMC 11-1405ET; UK: UE lower, Average earnings lower

Stocks: PLTR +16% profit; ZTS +3.5% beat; MAR +.79% beat; CDNS +2% beat,; SEDG -5% beat; FSLR downgrade; OXY +1% upgrade; HWM -1% -guidance, COIN +3% MSTR +1.4% Soros took bitcoin positions; TSLA 1% changing USA prices; KO +1% beat GFS beat

General: Leading: telecom, Brazil, tech Lagging: China Internet, US$

Indices: USA indices rising in premarket since European open ahead of the CPI report. Macro setup positive with US and European indices higher, US$ lower, yields lower and oil lower. SPY 413 support 410, 405, 400 and resistance at  415, 420. SPY expected move +/- 5 today. QQQ 305.5  with resistance 305, 310 and support  300, 295. CPI print is expected to be a market mover. Change in calculation may lead to a market response to the print followed by a secondary once the data is analyzed. SPY > 410 and QQQ > 305 will signal bullish response. Bullish response: TLT, GLD, equities higher with most speculative leading. Bearish: bonds, gold, equities lower.

Stocks to watch BABA, META, MSFT, TSLA, NSC, TSLA Spec Names AI, MNDY, ASAN

Pre-800ET

Earnings ANET, CDNS, CLF, IAC, BTU, GEO, GFS, INMD, KO, MAR, QSR

Indices IYZ, EWZ, SMH, QQQ, XLK, KWEB, ICLN, UUP

S&P500 CDNS, TSLA, MAR, OXY, NVDA, OXY, SEDG, ENPH

IWM MSTR, BTU, LTHM, AMKR, GEP, ADTN, FROVIR, DAN

WSB COIN, TSLA, MSTR, NVDA, ADFRM, GEO, CLF

Movers COIN, BEKE, VOD, MANU, CDNS, LCID, TS, MT, MAR, MSTR, TTE, TSLA, DDOG, BTU, FUTU, SHOP, OXY, UPST, NVDA, SEDG, AMKR, CLF, GEO, ADTN, FSLR, FRO, EDU, ENB, JD, ENPH

My Trade Idea: SPY
SPY is moving higher ahead of the CPI print with US$ and yields lower with the market predicting a low CPI print. Expected move +/- 5. SPY > 415 look for a strong move higher as IV drops. Should SPY move lower, fade possible below 412 towards 405 and 400 should 405 break. First move will be based on the print but look for a second move once the data is analyzed since the CPI calculation has changed.