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Swing Trade Idea – February 15, 2023

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET PRE CPI Report

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•Currencies:  US$ +.39% Euro -0.29% YEN -.44% GBP -1.0% CAD -.46%

News: USA: Retail Sales 8:30 ET, Empire State MFG 830ET; Ind Prod 9:15 ET; NAHB Housing Market 10:00 ET; UK: CPI 10.1% year over year vs 10.1% EUR: Lagarde 9:00 ET

Stocks: TSLA +2%, NVDA -1.3% highly traded ABNB +8.4% beat; KHC -1% beat; DVN -6.7% EPS miss; BCS -10% Profit -14%;  TTD +12% minor beat, buyback; TSM -5.7% Buffet reduced; TRIP +9% beat

General: Leading: bitcoin, US$, IPO, TLT  Lagging:  GDX, KWEB, EEM, GLD, XOP, EWZ, EFA

Indices: USA indices are lower ahead of a major data release, premarket. Macro setup is mixed with the US$ higher, yields lower, oil lower, and European indices higher. SPY 410.8 supports 410, 405, and 400 with resistance at 415 and 420. SPY is expected to move +/- 2.8 today. QQQ 305.5 has resistance of 310 and supports  305, 300 and 295.

Stocks to watch ABNB, TTD, TSLA, TRIP, PARA, TSM, NVDA Spec Names

Pre-800ET

Earnings ABNB, AKAM, CRK, DVN, HLF, LTHM, ADI, BIIB, GNRC, KHC

Indices UUP, TLT, GDX, GLD, KWEB, EEM, SMH, XOP, EFA, XLE, SOXX, IWM

S&P500 PARA, ADI, GNRC, TSLA, EXPE, DVN, BBWI, CVX, NEM, MAR, ATVI, AKAM

IWM CRK, GEO, HLF, CRDO, UDMY, FRO, AEO, LTHM, NE, BTU, ADTN, LPSN

WSB GEO, COIN, NIO, UPST, NVDA, BABA, GME, NET

Movers ABNB, TRIP, FUTU, TTD, CRK, PARA, DNUT, PD, RBLX, LPX, GNRC, BIDU, ABB, TSLA, GEO, HLF, COHR, EXPE, CRDO, DVN, TSM, UDMY, AU, UPST, GFI, FRO, NIO, AEO, LI 

My Trade Idea: SPY
SPY is soft premarket with major reports in the premarket. I will take the straddle approach with fade levels < 410 and 408.5 with a target of 405 and long premarket high of 411.9 with a target of 415. The US$ is strong in the premarket and further strengthening I believe will be negative.