Swing Trade Idea – February 27, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – Inventories
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US$ -.1%; $GBP +.28%
News: USA: Durable goods 830ET; Jefferson 1030ET
•Stocks: SGEN +12.8% potential PFE acq. LI +6% earnings; UNP +9.4% upgrade, new CEO plan; PFE -1% SGEN TSLA 2% Investor day Mar 1
•General: Leading: China Internet, spec tech, biotech, bitcoin, EFA Lagging: US$, Bonds
Overview: USA indices have been rising since European opened. Macro mixed with European indices are higher, US$ are slightly lower, and yields higher. SPY 398 support of 395, and 390 with resistance at 400, and 405. SPY expected move +/- 2.9 today. QQQ 293.7 with resistance of 295, 300, and 305 and with the support of 292, Light data day with just durable goods report so market will trade with 0DTE option flow. In my opinion, market leaning risk-on with many stocks oversold. SGEN potential acquisition may lift biotech in general and usual Mon TSLA squeeze may be in effect ahead of the investor day. The indices are bearish, and yields are continuing to rise, which is a reason for caution. SPY 290 is a key support level.
Stocks to watch TSLA, SGEN, BIDU, NVDA, ENPH, TGNA, RC, PFE, Spec Names LI, NIO, FREY
Pre-800ET
Earnings NE, TGNA, RC, LI, AES, VTRS
Indices KWEB, ARKK, XBI, /BTC, EFA, SOXX, QQQ, XLY, SMH, EWZ, UUP, TLT
S&P500 UNP, TSLA, PXD, AES, ENPH, NCLH, CCL, NVDA, BBY, PFE, VTRS
IWM ULCC, INSW, MSTR, APPS, TGNA, RC, COUR
WSB TSLA, BABA, COIN, MSTR, NVDA, RIVN, AFRM, PLUG
Movers SGEN, UNP, LI, BIDU, TSLA, ULCC, TSLA, DB, GMAB, BABA, PUK, U, PXD, INSW, ENPH, CSP, VOD, TGNA, RC, RRC
My Trade Idea: TSLA
In my analysis, TSLA in play with March 1 investor day which can add to the usual Monday exuberance. Premarket high of 202 can be used for a momentum long or pullback to >= 200. TSLA moves in increments of +/-5 so upside targets 205, 210, and 215 with downside targets of (< 200) 195, 190. 6% daily move priced into options.