Swing Trade Idea – February 28, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
Yields: Yields are higher
Currencies: US$ -.06%; $GBP +.4%
News: USA: Consumer confidence 10:00 AM ET; Richmond mfg 10:00 AM ET; the Supreme court is reviewing student loan forgiveness, little payments made by 40M people in the last 3 yrs JPN: Core CPI 3.1% y/y; CAD: GDP 8:30 AM ET; China: 8:20 AM ET China says reunification plan for Taiwan is in fast development.
Stocks: TSLA +1.89% investor day Mar 1; CVX +1.4% $20B repurchase plan; TGT -.19% earnings; OXY +0.2% -EPS; WDAY -.8% EPS; BNS -.8% BMO 0% EPS; ZM +5% EPS; AAP +4% EPS;
General: Leading: Spec tech, Energy, Tech Lagging: Gold, China Internet, bonds, emerging markets
Overview: USA indices rose since the European open but corrected since 7:30 AM ET. The macro is positive with European indices displaying higher, the US$ is slightly lower, yields are lower but oil is higher. SPY 398 has support of 395 and 390 with resistance at 400 and 405. The SPY is expected to move +/- 2.4 today. The QQQ 294 has resistance of 295, 300, and 305 with support of 292, the SPY 290 is in my opinion a key support level. The indices are pulling back into the open, this is perhaps related to China news. Consumer confidence 10:00 AM ET is a potential market mover due to inflation expectations. In my analysis, oil and TSLA are my top two to watch. Early strength in ARKK is fading into the open, I will be watching for risk-on / risk-off sentiment. The last day of the month can be volatile so keep your head on a swivel!
Stocks to watch TSLA, CVX, AAP, ZM, IGT, TGT Spec Names FOUR PGNY
Pre-800ET
Earnings RVMD, IGT, ZM, AAP, FOUR, IGT, INSW, MNSW, TGT, AHCO, WDAY, DQ, NCLH, BNS, BMO
Indices ARKK, XLE, XOP, BTC, QQQ, IWM, Semis DIA, GLD, KWEB, TLT, EEM
S&P500 AAP, TSLA, CVX, TGT, META, MRO, NCLH, DISH, KDP, CCL, RCL, AMCR
IWM RVMD, PGNY, IGT, GOGL, INSW, CELH, RETA, PTEN, AHCO, TVTX, ARNC, DDD, NE
WSB TSLA, COIN, AFRM, RIVN, NET, CLF
Movers PGNY, ZM, FOUR, IGT, MNSO, GOGL, TWLO, INSW, WB, ALC, AAP, ING, CELH, DB, HSBC, TSLA, TGT, AHCO, NCLH, DIS, KDP, WDAY, DKS, CCL
My Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA is in play with March 1 investor day which can potentially add to the usual exuberance. The premarket high of 212.5 can be used for a momentum long or a pullback to >= 210. TSLA moves in increments of +/- 5 so upside targets are 215 and 220 with downside targets of (< 210) 205, 200,195, and 190.