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Swing Trade Idea – February 3, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Market Setup- Pre-730ET PRE Jobs Report

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong China Asia –  Slight Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are flat

•Currencies:  US$ -.15%, Euro +0.24%, GBP +.14%

News:  USA: Jobs report at 8:30 ET ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET UK: Services PMI 48.7 vs 48  Europe: Final Services PMI 50.8 China: Caixin Services PMI 52.9 vs 51.1

•Stocks: AAPL -1.48% Miss no guidance for post March; AMZN -3.3% EPS miss AWS slowing;  GOOGL -3.5% EPS and Rev miss; JWN +27% Ryan Cohen position; QCOM -1.9% Rev miss; ZBH earnings beat

•General: Leading: EFA Gold Miners Bonds Lagging: ARKF, Tech, Brazil

Indices: USA markets are mixed ahead of non-Farm payrolls with Nasdaq and SPY lower post earnings. Macro setups are positive with yields lower, US$ lower. SPY 414 has the support of 410, and 405 with resistance at  415, and 420. SPY is expected to move +/- 3 today. QQQ is at 309 with a resistance of 310, and 315 and has support of 305, 300, and 295.  Earnings results were poor for the companies reporting; however, USA indices are rising post FOMC and in the current market fundamentals appear to be irrelevant. Implied volatility is elevated due to the non-farm payrolls and will be dropping on the release. In my opinion, based on the current market’s behavior expect all dips to be bought as long as SPY > 410 and QQQ > 305.  0DTE options flow was a record high on Thursday and likely will be active again today. If they continue to buy calls, look for SPY > 310 to lead to 315 and above 315 for 320. The risk will be if they switch to puts from calls as there is little to support the indices. Take care at 10:00 ET when ISM is printed and post 1430 for gamma squeezes.

Stocks to watch TSLA, GILD, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, SBUX, F Spec Names JWN

Pre-800ET

Earnings AAPL, AMZN, BILL, CLX, CTSH, F, GILD, GOOGL

Indices TLT, GLD, EFA, EWZ, QQQ, XLY, SOXX, XLK, ICLN

S&P500 GILD, LLY, WMT, TSLA, PEP, F, AMZN, GOOGL, QCOM, AAPL, GM, SBUX, NVDA, META, AMD, BA, GM

IWM APLS, F, TWO, MSTR, APPS, HLF, ASAN, BYND, C, AI

WSB F, AMZN, NET, COIN, MSTR, AFRM, UPST, RIVN, BA, NVDA, AMD, NIO, PLUG

Movers JWN, NVO, GILD, CVNA, TAK, AZN, BILL, TEAM, F, AMZN, DDOG, GOOGL, TWO, NET, COIN, SNY, AFRM, QCOM

My Trade Idea: AMZN
In my analysis, AMZN is in play post earnings report which was weak. The market is currently turning a blind eye to fundamentals hence this may move in either direction. A premarket high of 109 can be used for a momentum long and < 107 for a fade with a target of 105 and 102.  Fully expect dips to be bought given the market action so shorts need to be on a short leash.