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  • Swing Trade Idea – February 7, 2023

    Feb 07, 2023 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – February 7, 2023

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are higher

    •Currencies:  US$ +.08% Euro -0.19% YEN -.36%

    News: USA: Powell speaks at 12ET  Europe: German Industrial Prod displays -3.1% vs -0.7%  Canada: Macklem 12:30ET

    Stocks: CHGG -22% -guidance; BBBY -27% planning $1B equity raise  OSH +34% CVS close to a deal; BIDU +15% announced a plan for AI driven chat service; SOUN +15% AI names are hot; AI +3.3% ; PINS -1% Rev displays a miss; BP +4% EPS displays a beat with a divided raise; 

    General: Leading: China Internet, Spec tech, Energy Lagging: Bitcoin, EuroIndices: Global indices are consolidating ahead of Powell’s speech at noon. Macro setup is negative with yields higher, the US$ is higher and oil is higher. SPY 410 is at a major pivot level with the support of 408, 405, and resistance at 411, 415, and 420. In my opinion, the SPY is expected to move +/- 3.2 today. QQQ 304 has a resistance of 305, 310, and 315 with support of 302, 300, and 295. In my analysis, the SPY 310 is the key bull/bear dividing line. US$ and yields rising and are a risk to markets and recent moves are not priced into equities. Powell’s speech at noon could be market moving. Implied volatility is elevated into the speech with the expectation that he will be hawkish which can lead to a post speech bounce, especially if markets move lower. SPY 410 remains an important bull/bear level that is where SPY is currently trading but speculative. High short interest stocks are still well bid indicating risk-on in the face of an otherwise risk-off macro set-up.

    Stocks to watch BIDU, SWKS, BILI, TSLA, ENPH, BP, ATVI, CHGG, DD Spec Names SOUN, AI

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings ATVI, CHGG, SWKS, ZI, ARCC, BP, CARR, CTLT, DD, HTZ, XYL

    Indices KWEB, ARKK, XLE, XOP, faangmt, SOXX, GDX, EWZ, QQQ, XLK, /btc, euro

    S&P500 CTLT, SWKS, XYL, ATVI, NVDA, ENPH, TSLA, LMT, DD, CARR, CEG

    IWM SAVE, PRVA, CEIX, APPS, CHGG, SG, AI

    WSB NVDA, TSLA, BABA, AFRM, PLUG, GME

    Movers OSH, BIDU, LAC, DADA, BP, NVT, CTLT, SAVE, SWKS, XYL, BILI, LI, ATVI, GFI, SNAP, CHGG, ZI, PINC, CVAC, SG, EURN, AI, DD, GME, FUTU


    My Trade Idea: EDU
    EDU is a Chinese education/training company. From my analysis, China stocks have pulled back from overbought levels and have potential for a continuation, higher. I believe the risk is market reaction to Powell’s speech at noon today, so my safest approach is to wait for the reaction. My target is 45 with a long over Monday’s high

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