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Swing Trade Idea – February 8, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Slight Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are lower

•Currencies:  US$ -.19%, Euro +0.16%, YEN +.47% 

News: USA: Williams 9:15 ET, BARR 10:00 ET, Waller 13:45 ET, 10yr Bond Auction 13:01 ET  Europe: French Private Payrolls 0 vs 0.3%

•Stocks: FTNT +11.5% +guidance raising security sector; ENPH +8% beat raising solar sector; UBER +6.5% beat and raise; UA +7% +guidance; CVS +2% beat; MSFT +1% AI euphoria;  CPRI -20% miss; DT -6% secondary; ATVI -3% UK regulator negative provisional statement; MANU Qatari group may be buying; CMG miss and traffic lower

•General: Leading: Solar, Clean Energy, faangmt Lagging: China Internet, Small Caps, consumer discretionary

Indices: USA indices are pulling back since European open after post Powell surge. Macro setup is positive with yields lower, US$ lower but oil higher. SPY 413 with support of 410, 408, and 405 with resistance at  415, and 420. In my opinion, SPY is expected to move +/- 2.6 today. QQQ 308 with a resistance of 310, and 315 with support of 305, 300, and 295. SPY 310 is the key bull/bear dividing line. USA indices are currently all lower with small caps weakest and Nasdaq strongest. Equity, US$ correlation is currently positive which occurs at transition points.  Several FOMC speakers today who will add colour to Powell’s comments which the market is interpreting as dovish. Positive reports from FTNT and ENPH are boosting security and solar stocks. Euphoria regarding AI is boosting MSFT, GOOGL and NVDA. Weakness in BTC, IWM are cautionary signals ahead of the open.

Stocks to watch ENPH, SEDG, FTNT, ZS, CRWD, UBER, CMG, CPRI, Spec Names JKS, NET, AI

Pre-800ET

Earnings MCR, CCK, ENPH, EXEL, FRSH, FTNT, HRB, ILMN, KD, OMC, BAM, BG, BXMT, CME, COHR, COTY, CPRI, CMG, CVS, D, EMR, ETN, FOX

Indices TAN, ICLN, HACK, EWZ, faangmt, LIT, GLD, EEM, TLT, KWEB, IWM, XLY, XLB, XLV

S&P500 FTNT, ENPH, SEDG, CVS, MSFT, NVDA, DIS, GOOGL, PCAR, ATVI, TPR, ILMN, RL, SHW, PRU

IWM AI, STEM, SPWR, NOVA, ARRY, BE, HAIN, VSH, TWST, SAVA, URBN

WSB BABA, UPST, NET, NVDA, AFRM

Movers MANU, FTNT, ENPH, UAA, EQNR, UBER, SEDG, TRIP, AI, OSH, LYFT, BABA, PANW, COHR, SPWR, STEM, RUN, ZS, FSLR, CRWD, UPST, PCAR, CPRI, DT, PERI, TPR, ATVI, ILMN, RL, PVH, SAVA, SHW

My Trade Idea: MSFT
MSFT is benefiting from AI euphoria which is moving the stock in spite of lowered guidance. MSFT and NVDA are moving on this meme. Premarket high 273.6 and low 266. In my analysis, I’m looking for a pullback > 265 for a trade toward 270 and 275