Swing Trade Idea – March 08, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus, or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US $ -.29%; $AUD +.23%
News: USA: Powell Testimony; ADP Payrolls 815ET; JOLTS 10ET; 10y Bond Auction 1301; Europe: German Retail Sales -0.3% m/mvs 2.3%; EUR employment change 0.3% Q/Q vs 0.4%
Stocks: CRWD +5.7% beat and raise; OXY +3% Buffett bought 5.8M shares March 3 – 7; SHLS -7.8% secondary; MAXN +16% guidance +; SFIX -9% EPS; TSLA -1.35% no news
General: Leading: Brazil EFA XLE IWM Lagging: China Internet, Oil
Overview: USA indices have consolidated overnight ahead of Powell’s testimony and ADP report. Macro displays a mild positive with European indices going flat, US$ is lower, yields are lower, and oil is lower. SPY 398.8 supports 397, 395 with resistance at 402, 405, and 410. The SPY is expected to move +/- 2.5 today. The QQQ 296.4 shows resistance at 298, 300, and 305 with support at 295.6, 295, and 290. The QQQ is expected to move +/-2.4. Powell is speaking today and there is potential for further moves but the big move is likely in. ADP will potentially move markets at 8:30 ET, JOLTS at 10:00 ET and the bond market at 13:01 ET. The SPY and IWM, in my opinion, are at the bottom of the expected move for the week and statistically display better upside odds than down with Friday non-farm payrolls becoming a risk. The SPY 400 in my analysis is a major level which can act as resistance or lead to a pop above.
Stocks to watch CRWD, OXY, TSLA, JPM, BABA Spec Names: MAXN, SFIX
Pre-8:00 ET
Earnings CRWD, BF, CPB, MAXN, SOUN
Indices GDX, /btc, IWM, EFA, XLE, SMH, QQQ, XLK, KWEB, euro
S&P500 OXY, CMS, CPB, SBNY, EW
IWM FRO, BBIO, PLL, STNG, SHLS, PTLO
WSB AFRM, BABA
Movers CRWD, OXY, S, FRO, BHP, BBIO, AY, PLL, PERI, CMS, RIO, CPB, AFRM, AGNC, ZIM, SHLS, WDS, EDU, PTLO, PR, LOGI, USFD, LI, TS, WB, NVO, JD, GDS, EW, SBNY, BABA, PDD
My Trade Idea: CRWD
In my analysis, CRWD is in play post the earnings beat with analyst targets of 150-190. The premarket high is 136.29 and training 131.25. I will consider a long >130 with a target of 135. However, failure to hold 130 may cause a fade towards 125 and lower.