Swing Trade Idea – March 09, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘y-y’ – year to year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Negative equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US $ -.20%; $Yen +.67%
News: USA: UE claims 8:30 ET; Barr speaks at10:00 ET; 30y Bond Auction 1:30 ET China: CPI 1% Y-Y vs 1.9%; Japan: BOJ tonight could be a potential mover for the US$ and yields
Stocks: JD -5% EPS; MDB -10% EPS; SHLS -7.8% secondary; SI -38% potentially shutting down, bitcoin affecting; SBNY -8% SI sympathy ; SVB -30% Asset sale and $1.75B share sell; ASAN +17% EPS; SAVA +12% insider buy
General: Leading: GLD USO GDX Lagging: China Internet, bitcoin, emerging markets, ARKK, Semis
Overview: USA indices weakening premarket. Macro mild negative with European indices negative, US$ lower, yields higher. SPY 397.6 shows support at 397 and 395 with resistance at 400, 402, 405, and 410. The SPY can potentially be expected move +/- 2.3 today. QQQ 296.4 displays resistance of 298, 300, and 305 with support 295.6, 295, and 290. QQQ can potentially be expected to move +/-2.4. I see weakness in TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, and GOOGL and in my opinion the premarket is a concern should it continue into the open as market was supported by a few large stocks on Wednesday. Rise in the yields IMO is a front running of tonight’s BOJ meeting which is negative for tech and spec stocks. Financials are continuing to weaken, and in my analysis S&P will not be able to withstand this weakness in tech and financials. IN my opinion SPY 397 is a must hold line with 395 support, below.
Stocks to watch PYPL, META, GE, TSLA, NVDA, JD, MDB, JPM Spec Names ASAN
Pre-8:00 ET
Earnings ASAN, MDB, VET, ARHS, BJ, FUTU, JD
Indices USO, GLD, euro, XLE, KWEB, bitcoin, ARKK, EEM, SOXX, SMH, XLY, QQQ, faangmt
S&P500 PYPL, SIVB, SBNY, ETSY, TSLA, SPG, VF, RF, NCLH, KHC
IWM ASAN, SAVA, FRO, MSTR, AXSM, ADTN
WSB UBER, COIN, TSLA, MSTR, RIVN, BABA, PLUG
Movers ASAN, SAVA, VET, BJ, PUK, EXAS, FRO, PYPL, BUD, ROKU, SNY, UBER, AZN, SIVB, ARHS, MDB, SBNY, ETSY, RIO, BHP, NVS, TTD, COIN, TSLA, GH, BILI, PACW
My Trade Idea: PYPL
PYPL is a technical breakout stock. CFO is stepping down which is normally negative, but the stock moved higher. With the premarket high of $78.24 I may look for pull >=$76.4 for a long. In my opinion there is an expected move for the week is +/-1.9. Call buyers are targeting 80 over the next week. In my opinion bitcoin exposure is a concern, but PYPL seems unaffected.