Swing Trade Idea – March 1, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are higher
•Currencies: US$ -.73%; $EUR +1%
News: USA: ISM MFG PMI 10ET; Kashkari 9ET; China: MFG PMI 52.6 vs 50.7; Caixin MFG PMI 51.6; Europe: German CPI 8.7% y-y; German MFG PMI 36.3% M-M
•Stocks: TSLA +.5% investor day Mar 1; NVDA -.39% $10B shelf offering; KSS -6% -guidance; DLTR -3% -guidance; BABA +5%, BILI +8%, BIDU + 6% China is magically healed FCX +3% China is going to build ghost cities again USO -.3% China’s not buying oil?
•General: Leading: China Internet, Emerging markets, Pharma, Lithium Lagging: Retail, US$
Overview: USA indices moved higher with China and European data but pulling back since 7:00 ET; Macro mixed with European indices are higher, US$ massively lower, yields higher and oil lower. SPY 396.6 has support of 395, and 390 with resistance at 400, and 405. SPY expected move +/- 2.5 today. QQQ 294 with resistance at 295, 300, and 305 with support of 292, and 290. China data is driving China, European stocks, commodities higher and US$ lower but all are extended premarket so take care chasing. In my opinion, USA indices selling since 7am is a concern after a strong overnight session, watch SPY 395 for bounce or breakdown towards 390. Inflation concerns may be the issue with yields rising or the poor reports from retailers.
Stocks to watch TSLA, FCX, CLF, BABA, NVDA, KSS, DLTR, XRT Spec Names RETA, SRPT, BILI, SDGR
Pre-800ET
Earnings A, MNST, ROST, KSS, DLTR, CPNG, EC, FSLR, HPQ, RIVN, MLCO, LOW
Indices KWEB, EEM, XPH, /btc, ICLN, LIT, EFA, euro, GDX, SMH, faangmt, XBI, EWZ, XRT, HYG, TLT, UUP, AGG
S&P500 FCX, LVS, HPQQ, WYNN, PM, ENPH, PG, CAT, TSLA, NEM, MU, MU, MNST, AWK, NVDA
IWM RETA, SHLS, SDGR, ISEE, AI, GOGL
WSB BABA, CLF, COIN, PLUG, TSLA, AFRM, RIVN
Movers RETA, SRPT, SDGR, BILI, GDS, NTES, JKS, ZLAB, BIDU, PDD, FSLR, STLA, BHP, MT, FCX, KSS, RIVN, MNST, FMS, MANU, ROSS, M, JWN, MOS
My Trade Idea: SPY
SPY pulling back since 7:00 ET after a run up during Asian and European open. Key level is 395 where a bounce towards 400 or breakdown towards 392 or 390 is possible. In my analysis, the US$ lower is in theory bullish but yields are rising potentially on high European CPI or concerns that China reopening is inflationary. Be prepared for moves in either direction.