Swing Trade Idea – March 16, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET PRE ECB
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Negative equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, and Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US $ -.15%; $Yen +.62%
News: USA: UE claims, Philly Fed at 8:30 ET Europe: Rate decision 9:15 25 vs 50 bps
•Stocks ADBE +5% Minor EPS beat; META +1.5%, SNAP +5.7%, PINS +1.8% Meme USA will ban Tiktok; PATH +15% EPS; ASO +2.6% EPS;
CS +20% SNB loan; FRC -27%, PACW -17%
General: Leading: Bitcoin, Spec tech, Bonds, and Gold Lagging: Regional Banks, Energy, and Small Caps
Overview: Global indices are mixed ahead of ECB rate decision. Macro setup positive with US$ and yield slower. SPY 389 with the support of 387, 385, and 380 with resistance at 390, and 395. SPY expected move +/- 3.9. QQQ 299.5 with resistance at 300, and 302 with the support of 298, and 295. QQQ expected move +/-1.7. VIX futures remain inverted indicating elevated risk. QQQ is overbought at the top of the expected move for week. Wed large cap stocks were bought to support S&P, potential for continuation but odds favor pullback. Spec tech, bitcoin premarket strength are indication for potential short squeeze however ECB rate decision and USA UE claims are market moving events. SPY 385 remains a key support level and 393 a resistance level.
Stocks to watch META, SNAP, PINS, ADBE, FDX, CS, FRC, DG Spec Names PATH, COIN, UI, ENVX
Pre-800ET
Earnings SIG, ADBE, PATH, ZTO, BEKE, DG, ASO
Indices /btc, ARKK, TLT, GLD, GDX, JETS, euro, XLK, QQQ, KRE, USO, XLE, IWM, ICLN
S&P500 ADBE, SWKS, META, FDX, QCOM, FRC, ZION, CMA, FITB, DG, AIG
IWM CVI, ENVX, FL, MSTR, SIG, VIR, ESTE, HOPE
WSB COIN, MSTR
Movers PATH, SNAP, CVI, ENVX, ADBE, BEKE, SQ, COIN, PINS, SWKS, FL, META, UP, BUD, ZTO, FDX, QCOM, FRC, PACW, WAL, BIDU, DB, PUK, ZION, BHP, BILI, BP, JKS, WDS
My Trade Idea: PATH
Spec idea on strength of earnings beat. In my opinion, High open interest at 17.5 may act as resistance and a potential squeeze higher. Can look for break above premarket highs or pullback > 16.3