Swing Trade Idea – March 7, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are lower
•Currencies: US$ +.11%; $AUD -.79%
News: USA: Powell Testimony 10ET Europe: Retail sales m/m 0.3% vs 0.7% Australia: Raised rates 25bps-dovish comments
•Stocks: META +2% Layoff round 2; DKS +6% EPS; COST +.7% Upgrade SE +10% EPS; THO -10% EPS; SQSP +14% EPS; NTNX -7% EPS
•General: Leading: TLT Retail Solar faangmt Lagging: Lithium, oil, goldminers
Overview: USA indices consolidated overnight ahead of Powell’s testimony. Macro mixed with European indices are lower, US$ higher, yields and oil are lower. SPY 405.25 with support at 405, 402.2, and 400 with resistance at 406.7, and 410. SPY expected move +/- 3 today. QQQ 300.9 with resistance at 305 with support at 300, 298, and 295. QQQ expected move +/-3. Implied volatility is 50% elevated today ahead of Powell testimony, which can lead to support once the news is released. Large open interest at SPY 410 and 400 are targets for today though large JPM collar at SPX 4065 may act as resistance. DKS earnings providing a boost to retail and META layoffs providing a boost to tech.
Stocks to watch DKS[ASO], META,TSLA, THO, RIVN, EDU, Spec Names SQSP, LAZR, SNAP
Pre-800ET
Earnings SQSP, NTNX, TCOM, DKS, SE, THO
Indices TLT, XRT, TAN, faangmt, SOXX, ICLN, SMH, IWM, XLK, UUP, LIT, USO, EWZ, GDX, XLE, XME
S&P500 DISH, META, JNPR, UAL, ON, DXC, TRMB, KEY, LI
IWM SQSP, SWTX, SAVE, CWH, HIMS
WSB ASO, RIVN
Movers SE, SQSP, DKS, DISH, TCOM, SQTX, QGEN, META, ASO, PUK, TEAM, SONY, CRWD, SNY, THO, RIVN, NTNX, GSBD, FERG, DQ, FMS, EDU, DXC, QFIN, LSPD, LI
My Trade Idea: META
In my opinion, META is in play with the announcement of additional job cuts. In my analysis, premarket high of 189.4 can be used for a momentum breakout or a pullback >= 185. Expected move for week is +/-7 with large call positions at 190. A break of 190 can lead to 192.5/195. Large put positions at 185 should act as support and a move below indicates thesis is incorrect