Swing Trade Idea – April 11, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
•Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
•Yields: Yields are flat
•Currencies: US $ -.4%; $Yen +.3%; $EUR +.45%
News: USA:
Yellen at 11:30 ET; FOMC Goolsbee at 13:30 ET; Europe: Retail sales Y/Y
-3%; China: CPI 0.7% vs 1%
•Stocks KMX +6.4%, ADTN -17% Earnings; PYPL +2% V deal; NEM -3% acq; ZBH
upgrade; Bitcoin to the moon
Usual Suspects: MSFT -1.4%, TSLA +1.5%, AMZN -.8%, NVDA +.18%
•General: Leading: Bitcoin, Gold Miners, Brazil, bonds Lagging: Large cap tech, US$
Overview: USA indices pulling back since 6:00 ET. SPY 409 displays the support of 405 with resistance of 410, and 415. SPY expected move +/- 2.0. QQQ 317 with resistance of 317, 320, and 325 displays the support of 315, and 310. QQQ expected move +/- 2.5. QQQ is weakest sector with MSFT down on realization that slowing PC sales are bad for MSFTJ and TSLA may be used as a positive ballast against AMZN, MSFT, and AAPL weakness. Small caps may outperform as may high short interest stocks in the retail sector if Monday’s pattern continues. US$ weakness is boosting commodities and foreign stocks but not USA which raises question whether US stocks bounce today or the US$ moves higher. Yellen at 11:30 ET may be market moving so take care with market volumes low last 2 weeks.
Stocks to watch PYPL, KMX, COIN, MRNA, MSFT Spec Names RIOT, MSTR, FSLY, AI
Pre-800ET
Earnings ADTN, KMX
Indices BTC, GDX, EWZ, euro, GLD, KWEB, EEM, TLT, IWM, faangmt, XLK, IGV, UUP
S&P500 KMX, AKAM, PYPL, WELL, FCX, MRNA, NEM, MSFT
IWM RIOT, FSLY, ADTN, AI, FRO
WSB RIOT, COIN, UPST, AI
Movers KMX, RIOT, FSLY, BILI, LI, BHP, UBS, GFI, XPEV, RIO, COIN, PYPL, AU, ACI, ADTN, MRNA, SNOW, NEM, FRO, UPST, AI, DDOG, MSFT
Trade Idea: MSFT
MSFT is weak premarket so a candidate for a strong bounce (my guess) or breakdown. Consider long > 285 with target 290 and fade below 284 with target 282