Swing Trade Idea – May 15, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher
· Currencies: US $ -.18%
· News: USA: Empire Mfg at 8:30 ET; FOMC Kashkari at 9:15 ET, Barkin 1230, Bostic at 14:00 ET Europe: Industrial production -4.1% m/m; China: Central bank will maintain liquidity
· Stocks OKE buying MMP; ALB Chinese lithium prices+; WDC merger talks; NEM closes Newcrest deal; SRPT +25% FDA recommend drug approval; INTU, HRB Govt proposal for free tax software;
· General: Leading: bitcoin, China Internet, Clean Energy, Lithium, ERM Lagging: volatility, bonds, US$
· Overview: USA SPY 413.0 displays supportof 412.35, 410, and 405 with resistance 415, and 417.3. SPY expected move +/- 2.2. QQQ 325.7 with resistance 330, 328 displays support of 325, 320, 316, and 315. QQQ expected move +/- 1.9. Macro setup is mixed with US$ lower and yields higher. Global equities are broadly higher which is risk-on with media narrative that debt ceiling talks were positive. Caveat is that S&P500 is opening at the level where institutions have been selling in size. Premarket set-up is for a rotation into laggards such as commodities, bitcoin and China, all of which benefit from lower US$. Caution that the week is risky with Opex Friday and Vix expiration Wed.
· Stocks to watch FMNDY, WDC, AI, ALB, BABA, SCHW, RIVN, TSLA Spec Names SRPT, RIOT, COIN
Pre-800ET
Earnings MNDY, TSEM
Indices /btc, KWEB, ICLN, LIT, EEM, TAN, IWM, USO, XLB, XBI, EFA, XLF, VXX, TLT, UUP
S&P500 WDC, CTLT, DD, ALB, TPR, SCHW, BWA, FCX, META, ATVI, ENPH, OKE, INTU
IWM RIOT, AHCO, MSTR, ASAN, SHAK, NNOX, AI, FRO, SILK
WSB AI, RIOT, COIN, BABA, CLF, RIVN
Movers SRPT, MNDY, MMP, RIOT, ASAN, WDC, PDD, CTLT, BIDU, ALB, COIN, BILI, TSEM, NNOX, AI, TSEM, SCHW, BABA, JD, FRO, META, HRB, OKE, INTU, SBLF, LI, RIVN
Trade Idea: AI
In my opinion, AI is in play on preliminary guidance above expectations. In my analysis, premarket high 20.79 can be used for a momentum long or pullback >= 20. Call positioning can lead to a move to 22.5 or 23 with stretch target of 25