Swing Trade Idea – May 19, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
•Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are higher
· Currencies: US $ -.27%
· News: USA: FOMC Williams, Bowman and Powell 11ET; Canada: Retail sales at 8:30 ET Europe: German PPI 0.3% m/m; Lagarde at 15:00 ET
· Stocks FL -23% EPS, FTCH +20% EPS; GOOGL +1.25% NKE -2.5%
· General: Leading: USO, GDX, XLE, IWM, EFA, XLB Lagging: VXX XRT
· Overview: USA SPY 420.68 displays support of 412.35, 410, and 405 with resistance at 415, and 417.3. SPY expected move +/- 2.4. QQQ 337.3 with resistance 330, 328 displays support of 325, 320, 316, and 315. QQQ expected move +/- 2.8. Macro setup is negative with yields higher and US$ higher. Opex today with many stocks with out of the money calls expiring today which raises potential for pullbacks unless calls continue to be bought. Potential rotation into beaten down materials names in metals and miners. SPY 420 is a major resistance level, most likely scenario is stall or pullback but alternate thesis is a large upside move.
· Stocks to watch DE, X, NEM, AAPL, FCX, TSLA, GOOGL, AR, RRC, AMAT, FL, NKE
Spec Names PLTR, FTCH
Pre-800ET
Earnings AMAT, FL, BBWI, DE
Indices USO, GDX, XLE, IWM, EFA, XLB, VXX, XRT
S&P500 DE, FCX, OXY, CTLT, DXC, NKE, AMAT
IWM BE, FRO, ASO, FL
WSB WEN, ASO
Movers BE, DE, CNHI, LI, STLA, ABB, AGCO, FL, CTLT, NKE, AMAT
Trade Idea: AR
Nat gas producers broke out Thurs and setting up in premarket for continuation. Extended but above 24 gap to 26.