Swing Trade Idea – June 16, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are flat
· Currencies: US $+.01%
· News: USA: UofM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations China: Continuing to stimulate EUR: CPI y/y 6.1%
· Stocks ADBE +4.5% EPS MU +2.4% Close to $1B India & $603M China investment ENVX +8% met Q2 forecast IRBT +23% UK ok’d AMZN takeover SPCE +39% offering commercial spaceflight ops China Continuing discussion regarding stimulus boosting China internet stocks
· General: Leading: China Internet, Semis, Gold Miners, Spec_tech, volatility Lagging: DJIA, Small_caps
· Overview: Macro setup neutral with $US and yields flat after a large drop in US$ Thurs after ECB raised rates as expected. USA SPY 441 displays support of 435, 430 and resistance at 445. SPY expected move +/- 2.8. QQQ 371 with resistance 375 and displays support of 365, and 360 . QQQ expected move +/- 3.6. IMO Thurs surge was driven by a large drop in the US$ and aggressive call buying. Today $70B of options are expiring with indices stretched and volatility rising. Potential for continuing squeeze today but risk today and into next week for pullbacks as calls expire, especially names with high levels of out of the money calls. Consumer inflation expectations at 10ET may be market moving.
· Stocks to watch TSLA, MSFT, ADBE, BABA, MU, INTC, T
Spec Names ENVX, AI, U, PLTR
Pre-800ET
Earnings LEN, KR, POWW
Indices KWEB, SMH, VXX, SOXX, GDX, ARKK, /btc, EFA, faangmt, DIA, IWM
S&P500 ADBE, MU, CCL, NVDA, NKE, NCLH
IWM ENVX, AI, IAS
WSB BABA, PLTR, COIN, UPST, NVDA, AI, PLUG
Movers ENVX, COHR, ADBE, MU, BABA, COIN, PLTR, CCL, PLTR, UPST, PATH, CSIQ, MRVL, U, BILI, NVDA, JD, AI, GOLD, NKE, PLUG, DB
Trade Idea: JD
China internet stocks are moving on stimulus from PBOC due to a weakening Chinese economy. Relative to many USA stocks, China names are not stretched. JD has broken out on the daily and channel is turning up. Swing idea with 50 long term target