Swing Trade Idea – June 20, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – mild negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are flat
· Currencies: US $+.23%
· News: USA: Housing starts at 8:30 ET; FOMC Williams&Barr at 11:45 ET China: Rate cut too little for market EUR: German PPI m/m -1.4% vs 0.3%
· Stocks PYPL +2% biz sell, buybacks COHR/LITE +5% COHR upgrade INTC +1% momentum TSLA +.3% Moneyflow GOOGL -.39% money leaving China Rate cut not enough, China internets being hit hard
· General: Leading: bitcoin, Brazil, Volatility, Oil Lagging: China internet, Europe, materials, regional banks
· Overview: USA SPY 438 displays support of 436,435, and 430 with resistance at 440, and 445. SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 366 with resistance at 370 and displays support of 365, and 360. QQQ expected move +/- 3.5. Global equities are weak and US$ stronger and yields lower is a slight negative macro set-up. Week after Opex tends to have increased volatility and China disappointing rate cut and Powell speaking Wed is a setup for pullback/consolidation after last week’s short squeezes. Williams speaking at 1145 ET may be market moving as market squeezed higher post FOMC hawkish pause.
· Stocks to watch PYPL, PBR, PM, CCL, TSLA, INTC, COIN, BABA, AAPL, AMD
Spec Names ATMU, LITE, COHR
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices /btc, EWZ, VXX, UUP, USO, KWEB, FEZ, XLB, KRE, EEM, EFA, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLU, XLP, XOP, GDX, XRT
S&P500 PYPL, CCL, PM, NKE, DOW, FCX
IWM RIOT, ACLX, SMCI, ENVX
WSB RIOT, COIN, BABA, PLTR, AFRM, PLUG, F
Movers LITE, COHR, SNY, PBR, MLCO, PYPL, RIOT, PM, CCL, COIN, ACLX, XPEV, PDD, ALV, JD, BILI, MT, JKS, STLA, STM, NKE, CRK, PLTR
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Trade Idea: PYPL
In my opinion, PYPL is in play with sale of BNPL European biz to KKR and a $1B increase in buybacks. Multiple call buys of Jul 21 72.5 calls. Premarket high 67.92 can be used for a momentum long or pullback >= 67.5