Swing Trade Idea – July 31, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
‘div’ – dividend
‘m/m’ – month over month
‘y/y’ – year over year
‘Inven’ – inventories
‘mfg’ – manufacturing
+/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Market Setup- Pre-730ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields are lower Currencies: USA +.12%
· News: USA: Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET China: MFG PMI 49.3 vs 48.9; Services PMI 51.5 vs 53.9 More stimulus chatter JP: Industrial prod 2% vs 2.5% m/m EUR: CPI 5.3% y/y German retail sales -0.8% vs -0.3%
· Stocks: Earnings: ON 4%, IMGN +5.3%, APLS +1.8%
· General: Leading: USO, EWZ, XLE, ARKK, XLY, XOP, ARKF Lagging: VXX, KWEB, faangmt
· Overview: USA SPY 457.6 displays support of 455 452, 450, 448, 445, and 440 with resistance 460. SPY expected move +/- 1.9. QQQ 383.9 with resistance at 385, 390 and displays support of 375, 370. QQQ expected move +/- 1.4. Macro setup is neutral with US$ lower and yields flattish. Last day of the month usually bullish but markets looking forward to AMZN, AAPL earnings and jobs reports with indices pinned so expect rotation. Premarket leaders are stocks reporting this week, many which are in the spec tech category or upgrade/downgrades. Energy commodities and metals moving higher perhaps on more China stimulus chatter.
· Stocks to watch AMZN, AMD, ON, JNJ, CRM Spec Names IONQ, U, UBER, AR, XPEV
Pre-800ET
Earnings APLS, IMGN, ON, SYM
Indices USO, EWZ, XLE, ARKK, XLY, XOP, ARKF, ICLN, VXX, KWEB, faangmt, EEM
S&P500 ADBE, HAS, ON, CVX, AMD, CRM, JNJ
IWM APLS, IONQ, SG, IMGN, FRO, STNE, MARA
WSB PLTR, NIO, UPST, PLUG, UBER, RIVN, AMD, AFRM
Movers APLS, IONQ, W, PLTR, SG, IMGN, NIO, FRO, EDU, U, HAS, ADBE, PAGS, ONJD, CVX, AMD, ROKU, XPEV, BEKE, BILI, JNJ, CRM
Trade Idea: UBER
UBER reports earnings Aug 1. Premarket high 49. Expected move for week +/-4.1. Call open interest elevated at 50 strike which may be resistance or acceleration above with large open interest up to 55. Stock extended premarket so one can look for pullback >=48