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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 21, 2023

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ‘div’ – dividend 

    ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    Underlined text – higher volume premarket

     

    Market Setup- Pre-7:30 ET 

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Positive  equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: Yields are higher Currencies:  USA -.18% 

    ·         News: Europe: German PPI -1.1% m/m 

    ·         Stocks: Earnings: PANW +12% FRI earnings, up on no disaster  XPEV +5.7% upgrades VMW + 5.6% British regulator approved AVGO acquisition

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 438.5 displays support of 435 and resistance of 440, 445. SPY is expected to move +/- 2.7, and QQQ 360.8 shows resistance at 361.3, 362.5, and 365 with support at 356.9 and 355. QQQ is expected to move +/- 3. Risk-on setup with oversold equities bouncing premarket. Macro is counter intuitive with long yields sharply higher (bearish) and US$ lower (bullish).  I am looking for either yields or the equities to reverse as short covering and put closure following. Opex is likely the equity driver but during premarket the momentum is higher. SPY darkpool sellers are greater than 439.6 and buyers at 436 and 436.5; QQQ, DP, buyers at 356.9 and sellers more than 360.5, so take care as price reaches the sell bands. PANW earnings are juicing the oversold security names (FTNT, CRWD, and ZS); FAANGMT lead by TSLA and NVDA (earnings week), Spec tech (ARKK) AI, IONQ, UPST, and energy names are the strongest sectors. Again, my spidey senses are alert to the long yield increase so caution warranted


    ·         Stocks to watch  PANW, FTNT, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, XPEV, EQNR, GNRC, REGN,  TLT   Spec Names IONQ, AI, XPEV, UPST

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings PANW

    Indices  USO, HACK, ARKK, XLY, XLE, XOP, SOXX, QQQ, EFA, SMH, DBC, VXX, TLT, /btc, SPLV, UUP

    S&P500 PANW, TSLA, NVDA, FTNT, GNRC, AMD, CCL, DVN, JNJ

    IWM ESTE, IONQ, AI, SMCI, DHT, RIOT, MARA

    WSB TSLA, NVDA, AI, UPST, NIO, PLTR, AFRM, RIVN, AMD, CLF, NET

    Movers PANW, ESTE, VMW, XPEV, CRWD, TSLA, S, IONQ, NVDA, EQNR, STLA, AI, BP, NIO, UPST, KVUESNOW, U, ZTO, JNJ, AU

     

    Trade Idea: PANW
    In my opinion, PANW has moved greater than expected with its Friday EPS release. Shorts are covering with a premarket high of 236.19. Potential momentum long to 240 and 245. A pullback of more than 235 may be used for a long. A move below 230 could indicate that the move is being sold. Other names moving FTNT, ZS, CRWD, CSCO.

     

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