Swing Trade Idea – September 1, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
- Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
- ‘div’ – dividend
- ‘m/m’ – month over month
- ‘y/y’ – year over year
- ‘Inven’ – inventories
- ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
- +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
- Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields flat Currencies: USA -.03%
· News: USA Non-farm payrolls, UE rate 830ET; Final mfg PMI 945ET; ISM mfg PMI 10ET; EUR Final mfg PMI 43.5 continuing to contract;
·
China: Caixin mfg PMI 51 51 > 49 expected
Stocks: Positive Earnings LULU +2.3%, DELL 9.5%, MDB +5%,
NTNX +19%, ESTC +14%, S +4.9%
Negative
Earnings AVGO -3.9%, HCP -3.4%, PD -10.8%
Overview: USA SPY 452.2 with support at 450 and resistance at 455 .
SPY expected to move +/- 2.25; QQQ 378 with resistance of 380 and support
at 372 365 360; QQQ expected to move +/- 2.6; Macro set-up is mixed with yields
higher and US$ flat ahead of non-farm payrolls. Non-farm payrolls and UE
rate at 830ET will be market moving as will the ISM PMI data at 10ET. China
Caixin data indicated expansion, which is opposite of the official govt data
but with additional PBOC stimulus, is providing a lift to commodities and China
internet stocks (in spite of HK exchange closed). Indices remain extended but
in positive gamma which can support markets. Volatility is elevated ahead of
non-farm payrolls and should drop post, which will provide a small boost. SPX
range based on positioning 4500 – 4560.
· Stocks to watch: LULU, VALE, FCX, META, MRO, AVGO, DG
· Spec Names: NTNX, PD
Pre-800ET
Earnings: AVGO, VMW, LULU, DELL, MDB, IOT, NTNX, RH, ESTC, HCP, S, PD,
Indices: KWEB, EWZ, DBC, USO, XLE, EEM, GDX, IWM, FDN, XLB, XLF, XLY, VXX, /btc, HYG, TLT, AGG
S&P500: FCX, HAL, MRO, DVN, FANG, AVGO, WBD, DG
IWM: BORR, ACHR, CWH, PZZA, GOGL, SMCI, UUUU, NE, LAZR, PD,
WSB: NIO, AMC, PLUG, BABA, UPST
Movers: NTNX, ESTC, DELL, BEKE, MDB, S, EQNR, XPEV, SONY, BP, LI, AU, LULU, ACHR, RIO, AA, MT, VALE, PDD, PD, AVGO, UBS, DG, WBD
Trade Idea: FCX
Commodities are moving higher with China stimulus and copper is moving higher in spite of indication of global mfg recession. FCX is the go to for copper and in play today. Premarket high of 40.8 can be used for a momentum long or a pullback > 40.5. Swing targets 42.5 and 45.