Swing Trade Idea – September 11, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
- Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
- ‘div’ – dividend
- ‘m/m’ – month over month
- ‘y/y’ – year over year
- ‘Inven’ – inventories
- ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
- +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
- Underlined text – higher volume premarket
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields higher Currencies: USA -.31%
·
News: Japan: BOJ comments (NOT action) re: rate increases
is lifting the Yen and pushing down the US$. USA yields rising at the long
end. China: More stimulus and currency support is lifting Yuan and
providing a boost to China trading partners i.e. commodity suppliers
Stocks: TSLA +6%, Upgrade by MS; TWNK +17%, SJM buying QCOM
+5.2%, AAPL deal
Overview: USA SPY at 447.8 support of 445 443 and resistance
of 450 455 . SPY expected to move +/- 1.9; QQQ at 375.4 with resistance
of 377 380 and support 375 370 365 . QQQ expected to move +/-
2.2. Little economic data until Wed, hence market is dependent on whims
of 0DTE traders. Markets are supported into the first 2 days of the week of
OPEX and are trading higher as expected. Macro picture is muddled with US$
trading lower on BOJ comments and yields higher. Some concern that large moves
without action can be reversed intraday. TSLA upgrade (IMO a total farce) is
juicing the nasdaq and EV names. AAPL event Tues can lead to a run today as
China ban now long forgotten. China action to support Yuan and the daily
stimulus has led to a Pavlovian reaction to buy miners (FCX AA). Power
shortages in Texas weighing on bitcoin and the miners. Finally Cannabis stocks
are still strong, again without action by the USA govt.
SPX expected to trade 4450-4500 based on dealer positioning
· Stocks to watch: TSLA, QCOM, AAPL, MSFT, FCX, RTX Spec Names: TWNK, RIVN, MSOS,
Pre-800ET
Earnings: BOWL
Indices: KWEB, XLY, ARKK, SOXX, SMH, GDX, EEM, XLK, QQQ, faangmt, /btc, vxx, TLT, UUP, USO
S&P500: QCOM, TSLA, FCX, META, CCL, NVDA, SWKS, RTX, SJM
IWM: TWNK, SMCI, AI, ENVX, BOWL, RIOT, MARA
WSB: TWNK, TSLA, AFRM, NIO, RIVN, UPST, AI, PLTR, ORCL, CLF, NVDA, RTX, BOWL, RIOT,
Movers: TWNK, QCOM, TSLA, XPEV, KVUE, RIO, BILI, VALE, AA, LAC, MNSO, FCX, AI, UPST, RTX, XP, BOWL, AZN
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL has an event Tues with the announcement of the iPhone15 which coupled with general tech strength can be a catalyst for a run today. Typically its a sell the news event so short term trade idea. AAPL 180.5 premarket with 180 a key level so long > 180 with targets 182.5 and 185. Should 180 be breached 175 is the downside target