Swing Trade Idea – September 13, 2023
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
- ‘div’ – dividend
- ‘m/m’ – month over month
- ‘y/y’ – year over year
- ‘Inven’ – inventories
- ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
- +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
- Underlined text – higher volume premarket
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields higher Currencies: USA +.01%
· News: USA: CPI 830ET; 30y bond auction Europe: Industrial production -1.1% m/m UK: GDP m/m -0.5%
· Stocks: MRNA +4% cutting Covid vaccine production; MTCH +2% JPM Upgrade FITB +1.9% Dividend raise TSLA +1.0% Positive comments and Indian part supply + ECB investigating Chinese EV subsidy :)
· Overview: USA SPY 446.2 support 445, 443 with resistance of 450 and 455. I think the SPY is expected to move +/- 2.4 QQQ 373 with resistance of 375, 377, and 380 with support of 370 and 365. QQQ in my opinion is expected to move +/- 2.8. Global indices are slightly lower and FAANGMT are muted ahead of CPI. The US$ is higher, yields are higher, and Oil being higher are all negative, but CPI print may change the setup. SPX implied volatility is elevated ahead of the CPI data which can lead to indices moving higher should CPI not surprise to the upside. If the market responds favorably to CPI, ARKK and IWM precious metals and potentially regional banks may lead. I feel that SPX is expected to trade [4500 – 4450] based on dealer positioning.
· Stocks to watch: MRNA, MTCH, F, TSLA, AAPL, AAL, XPEV
· Spec Names: RIOT, MSOS
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices MSOS, btc, USO, XLE, DBC, IWM, XLF, JETS, KWEB, EFA, TLT, EEM, PRNT, GDX
S&P500 MRNA, MTCH, F, WDC, TSLA, AAL, DAL, LUV, UAL, ALK
IWM RCKT, IMGN, CRNX, IONQ, SAVE, SQSP
WSB F, TSLA, NIO
Movers RCKT, SGML, MRNA, IMGN, BP, F, CRNX, HSBC, TSLA, IONQ, RIOT, AAL, XPEV, RBLX, SAVE, NOVO, UAL, BUR, LUV, LI
Trade Idea: JPM
Financials bounced Tues. as money started rotating from tech post ORCL. Premarket JPM is holding up post CPI perhaps aided by MS upgrade 5o $179 Premarket high 146.61. I think this is a risky long idea but thesis on a potential rotation with indices supported. Resistance 149, 150 and premarket low of 146.12.