Swing Trade Idea – October 18, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields lower Currencies: USA +.01%
· News: USA: FOMC speaking 12-1 China: GDP better than expected but down y/y Geopolitical: Hospital bombed raising concern for escalation
·
Stocks: ABT +2.5%, ELV +1.35%, PG +2%, STT +2.2%, ASML -3%, ALL
-1.8%, MS -2.9%, EPS report
Overview: USA SPY 434.6 support 430 and resistance 435
438 440. SPY expected to move +/- 3.1, QQQ 366.5 with resistance 370 and
support 365, 360. QQQ expected to move +/- 3.32. Global equity set-up is
risk-off with precious metals and oil bid due to geopolitical events. China’s
better GDP is providing a bid to commodities. Analysts are finally realizing
that USA govt action visa vis China is negative for NVDA and semis in general
and weighing on the sector. MSFT is the one positive FAANGMT in the premarket. Daily
expected moves are important to watch today for support and resistance, as are
the major gamma levels. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (439.12-432.9);
QQQ (371.5-364.9); IWM (176.7-173.2); SPX(4404.2-4373.2). Vix futures
roll today which usually results in a rise and with 3d to Oct Opex, option
market will be providing less support and hence greater sensitivity to
geopolitical.
Stocks to watch ABT, MSFT, SPR, PG, GFI, AMD, NVDA, UAL, MS, TSM,
Spec Names: VKTX
Pre-800ET
Earnings: ABT, ELV, FHN, PG, STT, TRV, UAL, JBHT,
CFG, ASML, MS, ALLY
Indices: VXX, GLD, GDX, XLE, XOP, DBC, KWEB, TLT, ARKK, SMH, QQQ, IWM
S&P500: ABT, PG, OXY, MRO, DVN, NEM, ELV, UAL, JBHT, ALB, SHW, BIO, CCL, V, NVDA, FTNT, ALK, AMAT, QCOM, AAPL
IWM: EAT, CPE, BNL, ENVX, IONQ, LTHM, SMCI, AI
WSB: NVDA, AFRM, AI
Movers: VKTX, SPR, ABT, SHOP, PG, GOLD, FHN, GFI, OXY, PBR, GMAB, UAL, AZN, IBRK, ASML, MT, MS, BIDU, XPEV, DB, TSM, NVDA, ROKU, CCL, AFRM, JD
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA is pulling back again on the USA blocking sales to China of some devices. NVDA support at 430 so potential fade below with targets 425 and 420. Tues NVDA bounced at 424.8 so one can look for the reaction at that level. Bounces can be sharp so take care. SMH is an ETF to trade semis. AMD will typically trade in tandem with NVDA