Swing Trade Idea – October 23, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields higher Currencies: USA -.05%
· News: USA: 3m/6m bill auction 11:30 AM ET CAD: JPN: Yield curve adjustment chatter Geopolitical: Israel continuing to bomb but no invasion yet. China & European warships in the Mediterranean. The USA vetoed the UN ceasefire proposal.
·
Stocks: CVX -2.6% buying HES; ESMT +11.9% acquired by Vista partners, PFE
part owner; WBA +3% upgrade; PINS +2.2% Upgrade; CRM -1.6% downgrade; FMC -13% Guidance
cut; Negative in agg space (MOS, CF, NTR)
Overview: USA SPY 419.2 support 418, 415 and resistance of 420 and 425.
I expect the SPY to move +/- 4.2 QQQ 352.9 with resistance of 355 and support
of 351 and 350. I expect the QQQ to move +/- 4.4. Global equities are risk-off
premarket with yields higher and weakness in energy (no invasion) and high beta
technology. FAANGMT weak, AAPL, TSLA and NVDA laggards and MSFT is the
outperformer. Bitcoin is continuing to be strong but extended and lifting MSTR and
COIN. SPY is rising in premarket, retake and hold of 420 is important. Indices
are oversold and with a scarcity of economic data there is potential for a
bounce that I believe will likely be sold. Break below premarket low 418 can
indicate further selling. Daily expected moves are important to watch
today for support and resistance as are the major gamma levels. Today’s daily
expected move levels: SPY (425.4- 416.99) QQQ (359-350.2), IWM (170.2-162.7)
SPX(4266-4182).
Stocks to watch WBA, COIN, MSFT, TSLA, AAPL,
NVDA, TLT
Spec Names PINS
Pre 8:00 AM ET
Earnings
Indices /btc, vxx, MSOS, TLT, XLE, XOP, XBI, ARKK, XLB, EEM, KWEB, KRE, SMH, GDX, FDN
S&P500 WBA, RMD, FMC, CTVA, CVX, CRM, OXY, CCL, DVN, MRO,
IWM ESMT, MSTR, ELF, RVMD, SUM, IMVT, ASAN, FRO, IONQ, NE
WSB COIN, MSTR, PLTR, AFRM, CLF, UPST, TSLA, AI
Movers ESMT, TSEM, WBA, COIN, PINS, PHG, RVMD, IMVT, ASAN, OKTA, AYX, AA, CVX, U, BNTX, IONQ, EH, BP, CRM, FRO, ENPH, PDD, OXY
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL is
testing the 170 level which is a level with high put open interest. Below 170
potential fade towards 167.5 and 165. Above 170 potential for 172.5 and 175 but
premarket resistance at 171.4.
Strongest FAANGMT names in my opinion are NFLX and MSFT.