Swing Trade Idea – November 15, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
· Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Long Yields higher Currencies: USA +.14%
· News: USA:
PPI; Empire State Mfg; Retail Sales 830ET EUR: Ind Prod -1.1%
m/m China: Retail sales and Ind Prod above expectations JPN: GDP
q/q -0.5%
Stocks: TGT +14.68% JD +4.98% TJX +2% CTLT +4% DAVA +6.2% AAP -4% GLBE
-14% Earnings reactions
· Overview: USA SPY 45 supports 450 and 445 with resistance of 451.3 and 455 SPY us expected to move +/- 2.6 QQQ 388 with resistance of 388.5 390 and support of 385 380. QQQ is expected to move +/- 3.2. Global equities are continuing the post CPI squeeze ahead of PPI and retail sales prints premarket. Macro setup is at odds with the equity move with 30y yields higher and US$ higher so either the macro or equity is wrong. USA indices are above their weekly expected moves with IWM moving 3 SD hence stretched. Premarket setup indicates outperformance by the poorest performing, most shorted stocks i.e., short covering. Potential to continue but downside risk grows as exuberance over Santa Claus grows. Short and gamma squeezes are powerful but keep eyes open for a trap. Today’s daily is expected to move levels: SPY (451.3-446.1) QQQ (388.5-382.2), IWM (180.9-176) SPX(4521.6-4469.8).
· Stocks to watch: TSLA, AMD, META, JD, TGT, TJX
· Spec Names IONQ, SMCI, MAXN, PLUG Short Squeeze IPO ARKK
Pre-800ET
Earnings DAVA, JD, TGT, TJX, CTLT, IFNNY, OLK, AAP, GLBE,
XPEV, TJX
Indices /btc, KWEB, ARKK, EWZ, GDX, XRT, SMH, JETS, KRE, XLY, FDN, QQQ, VXX, TLT, euro, USO, XLE
S&P500 TGT, VFC, CCL, TSLA, ENPH, ON, PANW, NCLH, SEDG, ETSY, DAL, PYPL, NFLX, AMD, AAL, TJX
IWM IONQ, GT, BE, AEO, SMCI, FRO, STNE, AI, ENR
WSB UPST,
BABA, GME, COIN, MSTR, AFRM, TSLA, PLTR, AI, AMD, NET, AMZN
Movers TGT, JD, IONQ, GT, OLK, PDD, BE, STM, CVNA, UPST, VFC, VIPS,
AEO, BABA, BIDU, INMD, GME, RUN, FUTU, CGLBE, ENR, ALC, TJX, DT, AAP
Trade Idea: GT
GT is a beaten down stock in play on transformation plan. Premarket high 15 with no call volume above so potential long > 15 and fade < 14.5