Swing Trade Idea – November 3, 2023
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral, equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: Yields lower Currencies: USA -.18%
· News: USA: Non-farm payrolls 830ET; ISM services PMI 10ET; EUR: UE rate 6.5% vs 6.4%; China: Caixin Services PMI 50.4 vs 51; CDN: UE rate 830ET
·
Stocks: SQ +15%, MGA +3%, DOCN +22%, FLR +4% , AAPL -2.3%,
TEAM -9%, FTNT-20%, NET -4%, SWKS -3.9%, MCHP -2.3%, BILL-29%, Earnings
reactions
Overview: USA SPY 430.4 support 430 425 and resistance 435 . SPY
expected move +/- 3.8 QQQ 362.5 with resistance 365 and support
360 355. QQQ expected move +/- 3.6. USA indices flat ahead of the
non-farm payroll print. Indices are very extended after a 2d rally following a
drop in yields and US$ and a healthy dose of short covering. AAPL forecast
(basically no growth) is only slightly weighing on stock and hence market but
worth watching in case fundamentals matter. The small cap/short squeeze names
are up premarket so looks like they will try again. Caveat is out of the money
call euphoria can lead to late in the day pullback should stocks/indices stall.
Indices should now be in positive gamma which will slow down the advance.
Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (434.5-427), QQQ (367-360), IWM
(171.9-167.9), SPX(4350-4385).
Stocks to watch: SQ, FLR, EXPE, DKNG, MNST, AAPL, FTNT, NET, Spec Names: DOCN
Pre-800ET
Earnings: SQ, DOCN, MGA, FLR, AAPL, TEAM,
FTNT, NET, SWKS
Indices: KWEB, USO, ARKK, KRE, EEM, IWM, TLT, ICLN, XLU, /btc, IGV, XLK, EWZ, faangmt, QQQ
S&P500: EXPE, PODD, LYV, PARA, MNST, CAH, WBD, MU, BKNG, FTNT, PANW, AAPL, SWKS, INTU, SYK, HD
IWM: DOCN, FLR, FRO, RIOT
WSB: FIGS, NIO, UBER, BABA, NVDA, COIN, NET, RIOT, MSTR
Movers: DOCN, SQ, EXPE, PARA, IEP, FLR, LYV, DKNG, CRSP, BILI, BILL, FTNT, AGL, FND, TEAM, COIN, NET, RIOT, AAPL, PANW
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL in play post earnings with stock down on a forecast for no growth. Moved down to expected move but bouncing with the rest of the market post jobs report. Straddle approach: > 175 potential long
Should bounce fail, targets 172.5 and 170. Premarket looks like a risk-on short squeeze but may not last so take care.