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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 16, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia slight negative equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.5% Currencies:  USA  +.77%

    ·         News: USA:Waller FOMC 11ET
    Stocks:
      GS +1.3%, MS +1%,   EPS; Downgrade BA -2.2%, SPR -1.9%  Upgrade: HD, NVDA, DOCU, DG, MU
    USA Health & Human Services opinion that Cannabis has medical benefit is raising expectation that drug can be re-rated as less dangerous which can reduce the tax burden for USA companies. Is lifting Cannabis names, but is not the same as legalization.
    Overview: USA SPY 474.8  support  474 473  and resistance 475 480.  SPY expected move +/- 2.8  QQQ 407.5 with resistance  410 412.5  and support  406.5 405 400 ; expected move 3.1. USA indices are negative premarket with Russell 2000 weakest and DJIA strongest. Macro factors are negative with long yields, US$  and oil higher. Macro setup can lead to a trend day lower; however markets are still in a supportive time period until Wed. Middle east escalation is leading to support to shippers but only a small bid to oil. MAG7 are generally weak with MSFT positive but remainder negative with TSLA and AAPL leading to downside. Waller speaking at 11ET will be market moving as he has been a hawk but helped launch the market higher late in 2023 with bullish comments.  Breaches of daily expected move can lead to outsized moves. Today daily expected move levels: SPY (479.5-473.9)  QQQ (412.7-406.5), IWM (195.4-191) SPX(4812-4756). 

    Stocks to watch:
    AMD, GS, MSOS,  BA, AAPL, TSLA,   Spec Names: ZIM, FRO 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   GS, MS, PNC

    Indices: MSOS, VXX, UUP, USO, faangmt,  KWEB, GDX, /btc, EEM, EFA, FEZ, EWZ, ARKK, KRE, TLT, XBI, euro, IWM

    S&P500: AMD, ANSS, GS, MS,  BA, FTNT, AAPL, PYPL, TSLA, NEM, CCL, HPE

    IWM:  FRO,   RIOT, IONQ, CNX
    Movers: FRO, ZIM, W, SQM, INMD, ANSS, AMD, GS, CCJ,  GMAB, XPEV, LI, BIDU, HSBC, AZN, STLA, EQNR, CPNG, RKT, CNHI, BILI, BA, MTES, GOLD, GFI, JD, U





    Trade Idea: MSOS

    Cannabis is in play after opinion from Health and Human Services that the drug should be rated as less dangerous which can result in lower tax payment for USA companies. MSOS holds a basket of Cannabis companies. Above $8, option market is pricing in $10 and $12

     

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