Swing Trade Idea – January 24, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.5% Currencies: USA -.6%
·
News: USA: PMIs 945ET EUR: MFG PMI 46.6 services
48.4 CDN: BOC decision
Stocks: NFLX +9.8%, ISRG +4.5%, EDU 9.7%, ASML 5.8%, eps TXN -3%, T
-3.3%, EPS DD -11%, sales warning EBAY +3.9% layoffs
·
Overview: USA SPY 487.8 support 485 483 and resistance 4857
490. SPY expected move +/- 2.1 QQQ 427.3 with resistance 427
430 and support 425 420 ; expected move 3. Market is risk-on in premarket
with USA large cap indices above the top of the daily expected move which can
lead to a strong trend day higher or a pullback. Macro catalysts are a sharply
lower US$ and lower long yields Which may change at 945ET with the release of
USA data. If the risk-on state continues, look for outperformance by small
caps, profitless tech (ARKK), cloud software, biotechs. NFLX, SAP< ISRG are
potential runners with price moves > expected moves. TSLA earnings after
close should lead to action today and NFLX move may shake conviction of the
shorts. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (486.9-482.8), QQQ
(426.5-420.5), IWM (199.5-192.4), SPX(4885-4843).
Stocks to watch: NFLX, SAP, EDU, AMD, TSLA, AU, TXN, DD, T, ABT, Spec Names SMCI,
Pre-800ET
Earnings: NFLX, CNI, ISRG, EDU, TXT, ELV, ASML, FCX, TXN, T,
KMB,
Indices: KWEB, /btc, FEZ, EEM, ICLN, ARKK, EWZ, GDX, IWM, SMH, ARKF, EFA, XBI, VXX, UUP
S&P500:
NFLX, ISRG, EBAY, WDC, LRCX, NOW, AMAT, AMD, FCX, ENPH, PYPL,
TSLA, DD, KMB, T, TXN, ABT, DOW, BIIB, DOW
Movers: TAL, NFLX, EDU, SAP, AU, ASML, GFI, BILI, ISRG, RIOT, DD, DWAC,
KMB, T, TXN, ABT, DOW, W
Trade Idea: NFLX
NFLX has moved > expected move on earnings. Premarket high 545.7, expected move 530. While above 530 dips may be bought. Above 545, 550, 560 are potential targets. Should 530 be breached it’s a signal that the pop is being sold.